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Thunder at Knicks

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 4 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final OKC 103 – NY 100
← NBA / Mar 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC25252726103
NY23174020100
Team box
OKC·NY
33-73
field goals
37-88
16-42
3-pointers
10-35
21-25
free throws
16-22
38
rebounds
48
21
assists
23
16
turnovers
14
20
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Chet HolmgrenOKC322882
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC352638
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3317171
Jalen BrunsonNY3916315
Luguentz DortOKC331641
OG AnunobyNY381630

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +15
OKC +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 4 · OKC 15lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 61%, NY 39% · Updated Mar 4

Expected margin
OKC by 4.6
Expected score
OKC 114.3 – 109.7 NY
Expected total
224.0
ThunderThe matchupKnicks
−154Our fair odds+154
114.3Expected points109.7
+1.14Power rating+0.53
119.1Points / game117.2
107.9Allowed / game110.9
48.4FG%47.2
36.13P%37.5
44.0Rebounds / game46.2
48−15Season record41−22
8−2Last 107−3
Ajay Mitchell · Branden Carlson
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas SorberOutMiles McBride · Mitchell Robinson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · NY chance
Our model fair60.6%39.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−15461%————
NYNew York Knicks+15439%————
SpreadOKC by 4.6
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−4.6our margin————
NYNew York Knicks+4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.0
Over224.0our total————
Under224.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 4.6 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 2%New York Knicks by 4 points: 2%New York Knicks by 5 points: 2%New York Knicks by 6 points: 2%New York Knicks by 7 points: 2%New York Knicks by 8 points: 2%New York Knicks by 9 points: 2%New York Knicks by 10 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 1%New York Knicks by 14 points: 1%New York Knicks by 15 points: 1%New York Knicks by 16 points: 1%New York Knicks by 17 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: <1%New York Knicks by 24 points: <1%New York Knicks by 25 points: <1%New York Knicks by 26 points: <1%New York Knicks by 27 points: <1%New York Knicks by 28 points: <1%New York Knicks by 29 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%
← OKC wins byNY wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more53%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more37%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.0 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.568%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·NY
Mar 3 at CHI
last game
Mar 3 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 4, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strain/ left ankle sprainOut
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
New York Knicks
NYMiles McBride · pelvic; core muscle surgeryOut
NYMitchell Robinson · left ankle; left ankle injury managementOut
NYDillon Jones · g league - two-wayQuestionable
NYKevin McCullar Jr. · g league - two-wayQuestionable
NYPacome Dadiet · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
NYTrey Jemison III · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
OKC·NY
+1.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
119.1
points / game
117.2
107.9
points allowed / game
110.9
48−15
season record
41−22
25−7
home record
24−8
23−8
away record
17−14
W3
streak
W3
8−2
last 10
7−3
48.4
FG%
47.2
36.1
3P%
37.5
44.0
rebounds / game
46.2
25.6
assists / game
27.2
12.6
turnovers / game
13.6
50.1
points in paint / game
46.9

Rating Trend

OKC · NY · 120 days
Oklahoma City ThunderNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NY 1−7
Jan 10, 2025at NYOKC 126 − 101
Jan 3, 2025at OKCOKC 117 − 107
Mar 31, 2024at NYOKC 113 − 112
Dec 27, 2023at OKCOKC 129 − 120
Nov 21, 2022at OKCNY 129 − 119
Nov 13, 2022at NYOKC 145 − 135
Feb 14, 2022at NYOKC 127 − 123
Dec 31, 2021at OKCOKC 95 − 80

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W
Feb 25at DET116 − 124L
Feb 24at TOR116 − 107W
Feb 22vs CLE121 − 113W
Feb 20vs BKN105 − 86W
Feb 12vs MIL93 − 110L
Feb 11at PHX136 − 109W
Feb 9at LAL119 − 110W

NY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 3at TOR111 − 95W
Mar 1vs SA114 − 89W
Feb 27at MIL127 − 98W
Feb 24at CLE94 − 109L
Feb 22at CHI105 − 99W
Feb 21vs HOU108 − 106W
Feb 19vs DET111 − 126L
Feb 11at PHI138 − 89W
Feb 10vs IND134 − 137L
Feb 8at BOS111 − 89W