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Thunder at Mavericks

NBA · Sunday, Mar 1 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final OKC 100 – DAL 87
← NBA / Mar 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC36222517100
DAL2524201887
Team box
OKC·DAL
41-92
field goals
33-85
8-39
3-pointers
9-31
10-15
free throws
12-16
46
rebounds
49
22
assists
20
9
turnovers
17
48
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC333045
Chet HolmgrenOKC281991
Caleb MartinDAL301830
Max ChristieDAL351470
Brandon WilliamsDAL241433
Isaiah JoeOKC211450

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +22
OKC +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 5 · OKC 22lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 78%, DAL 22% · Updated Mar 1

Expected margin
OKC by 12.1
Expected score
OKC 120.9 – 108.8 DAL
Expected total
229.7
ThunderThe matchupMavericks
−350Our fair odds+350
120.9Expected points108.8
+1.15Power rating−0.30
119.5Points / game114.4
108.2Allowed / game118.0
48.5FG%47.5
36.53P%33.9
43.9Rebounds / game44.7
46−15Season record21−38
6−4Last 102−8
Ajay Mitchell · Branden Carlson
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas SorberOut (5 each)Cooper Flagg · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving · Marvin Bagley III
Miles Kelly

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · DAL chance
Our model fair77.8%22.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−35078%————
DALDallas Mavericks+35022%————
SpreadOKC by 12.1
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−12.1our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+12.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.7
Over229.7our total————
Under229.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 12.1 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%
← OKC wins byDAL wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more74%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more58%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more41%
Within 5 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.7 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·DAL
Feb 27 vs DEN
last game
Feb 27 vs MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 1, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strain/ left ankle sprainOut
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALCooper Flagg · left midfoot; sprainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMarvin Bagley III · neck; sprainOut
DALMiles Kelly · not with teamOut
DALNaji Marshall · right finger; contusionDoubtful
DALP.J. Washington · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALCaleb Martin · low back; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
OKC·DAL
+1.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.30
119.5
points / game
114.4
108.2
points allowed / game
118.0
46−15
season record
21−38
25−7
home record
14−18
21−8
away record
7−20
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
2−8
48.5
FG%
47.5
36.5
3P%
33.9
43.9
rebounds / game
44.7
25.7
assists / game
25.1
12.8
turnovers / game
14.8
50.1
points in paint / game
54.1

Rating Trend

OKC · DAL · 117 days
Oklahoma City ThunderDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 6−4
Dec 5, 2025at OKCOKC 132 − 111
Oct 27, 2025at DALOKC 101 − 94
Jan 23, 2025at OKCDAL 121 − 115
Jan 17, 2025at DALDAL 106 − 98
Dec 10, 2024at OKCOKC 118 − 104
Nov 17, 2024at OKCDAL 121 − 119
May 18, 2024at DALDAL 117 − 116post
May 15, 2024at OKCDAL 104 − 92post
May 13, 2024at DALOKC 100 − 96post
May 11, 2024at DALDAL 105 − 101post

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W
Feb 25at DET116 − 124L
Feb 24at TOR116 − 107W
Feb 22vs CLE121 − 113W
Feb 20vs BKN105 − 86W
Feb 12vs MIL93 − 110L
Feb 11at PHX136 − 109W
Feb 9at LAL119 − 110W
Feb 7vs HOU106 − 112L
Feb 4at SA106 − 116L

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Feb 27vs MEM105 − 124L
Feb 26vs SAC121 − 130L
Feb 24at BKN123 − 114W
Feb 22at IND134 − 130W
Feb 20at MIN111 − 122L
Feb 12at LAL104 − 124L
Feb 10at PHX111 − 120L
Feb 7at SA125 − 138L
Feb 5vs SA123 − 135L
Feb 3vs BOS100 − 110L