bayesRatings

Thunder at Pistons

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 25 · 6:30 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final OKC 116 – DET 124
← NBA / Feb 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC34182836116
DET22363630124
Team box
OKC·DET
39-96
field goals
48-89
18-49
3-pointers
9-27
20-21
free throws
19-26
37
rebounds
52
28
assists
29
14
turnovers
17
32
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylin WilliamsOKC3530114
Cade CunninghamDET3829413
Jalen DurenDET3129152
Cason WallaceOKC302325
Aaron WigginsOKC352046
Jared McCainOKC302032

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +17
OKC +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 17 · OKC 12lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 59%, DET 41% · Updated Feb 25

Expected margin
OKC by 4.2
Expected score
OKC 114.2 – 110.1 DET
Expected total
224.3
ThunderThe matchupPistons
−146Our fair odds+146
114.2Expected points110.1
+1.15Power rating+0.59
119.4Points / game117.3
107.7Allowed / game109.4
48.7FG%48.1
36.63P%34.8
43.8Rebounds / game45.9
45−14Season record42−14
7−3Last 108−2
Ajay Mitchell · Isaiah Hartenstein
Jalen Williams · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Thomas SorberOutBobi Klintman · Chaz Lanier
Isaiah Stewart · Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · DET chance
Our model fair59.4%40.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−14659%————
DETDetroit Pistons+14641%————
SpreadOKC by 4.2
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−4.2our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons+4.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.3
Over224.3our total————
Under224.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 4.2 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%
← OKC wins byDET wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more52%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more36%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.3 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GIsaiah Joestarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·DET
Feb 24 at TOR
last game
Feb 23 vs SA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 25, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strain/ left ankle sprainOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; injury managementOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · abdominal; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAlex Caruso · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
OKCChet Holmgren · low back; spasmsDoubtful
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · league suspensionOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
OKC·DET
+1.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
119.4
points / game
117.3
107.7
points allowed / game
109.4
45−14
season record
42−14
24−7
home record
22−7
21−7
away record
20−7
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
8−2
48.7
FG%
48.1
36.6
3P%
34.8
43.8
rebounds / game
45.9
25.6
assists / game
26.7
12.7
turnovers / game
15.2
50.3
points in paint / game
57.2

Rating Trend

OKC · DET · 113 days
Oklahoma City ThunderDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DET 3−5
Apr 2, 2025at OKCOKC 119 − 103
Mar 15, 2025at DETOKC 113 − 107
Jan 28, 2024at DETDET 120 − 104
Oct 30, 2023at OKCOKC 124 − 112
Mar 29, 2023at OKCOKC 107 − 106
Nov 7, 2022at DETDET 112 − 103
Apr 1, 2022at OKCDET 110 − 101
Dec 6, 2021at DETOKC 114 − 103

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Feb 24at TOR116 − 107W
Feb 22vs CLE121 − 113W
Feb 20vs BKN105 − 86W
Feb 12vs MIL93 − 110L
Feb 11at PHX136 − 109W
Feb 9at LAL119 − 110W
Feb 7vs HOU106 − 112L
Feb 4at SA106 − 116L
Feb 3vs ORL128 − 92W
Feb 1at DEN121 − 111W

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Feb 23vs SA103 − 114L
Feb 21at CHI126 − 110W
Feb 19at NY126 − 111W
Feb 11at TOR113 − 95W
Feb 9at CHA110 − 104W
Feb 6vs NY118 − 80W
Feb 5vs WSH117 − 126L
Feb 3vs DEN124 − 121W
Feb 1vs BKN130 − 77W
Jan 30at GS131 − 124W