bayesRatings

Spurs at Pistons

NBA · Monday, Feb 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final SA 114 – DET 103
← NBA / Feb 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA24332631114
DET27282028103
Team box
SA·DET
42-101
field goals
40-106
18-40
3-pointers
7-36
12-19
free throws
16-19
50
rebounds
55
32
assists
21
16
turnovers
16
44
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin VassellSA362824
Jalen DurenDET2925141
Victor WembanyamaSA3621174
Julian ChampagnieSA361761
Cade CunninghamDET3516610
Stephon CastleSA3016411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +15
SA +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 6 · SA 15lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 40%, DET 60% · Updated Feb 23

Expected margin
DET by 3.9
Expected score
DET 115.7 – 111.8 SA
Expected total
227.4
SpursThe matchupPistons
+149Our fair odds−149
111.8Expected points115.7
+0.35Power rating+0.56
118.5Points / game117.6
112.2Allowed / game109.3
48.0FG%48.3
34.83P%35.1
46.6Rebounds / game45.7
40−17Season record42−13
9−1Last 108−2
David Jones Garcia · Harrison Ingram
Mason Plumlee · Stanley UmudeOut (4 each)Bobi Klintman · Isaac Jones
Isaiah Stewart · Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · DET chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+14940%————
DETDetroit Pistons−14960%————
SpreadDET by 3.9
SASan Antonio Spurs+3.9our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.4
Over227.4our total————
Under227.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 3.9 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%
← SA wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more51%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more36%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.4 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·DET
Feb 21 vs SAC
last game
Feb 21 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 23, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAMason Plumlee · return to competition reconditioningOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · coach's decisionOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · league suspensionOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
SA·DET
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.56
118.5
points / game
117.6
112.2
points allowed / game
109.3
40−17
season record
42−13
21−6
home record
22−6
19−11
away record
20−7
W8
streak
W5
9−1
last 10
8−2
48.0
FG%
48.3
34.8
3P%
35.1
46.6
rebounds / game
45.7
26.8
assists / game
26.8
13.7
turnovers / game
15.2
51.4
points in paint / game
57.1

Rating Trend

SA · DET · 111 days
San Antonio SpursDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DET 4−4
Mar 25, 2025at DETDET 122 − 96
Feb 21, 2025at SADET 125 − 110
Apr 14, 2024at SASA 123 − 95
Jan 10, 2024at DETSA 130 − 108
Feb 10, 2023at DETDET 138 − 131
Jan 6, 2023at SASA 121 − 109
Jan 1, 2022at DETDET 117 − 116
Dec 26, 2021at SASA 144 − 109

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Feb 21vs SAC139 − 122W
Feb 19vs PHX121 − 94W
Feb 11at GS126 − 113W
Feb 10at LAL136 − 108W
Feb 7vs DAL138 − 125W
Feb 5at DAL135 − 123W
Feb 4vs OKC116 − 106W
Feb 1vs ORL112 − 103W
Jan 31at CHA106 − 111L
Jan 28at HOU111 − 99W

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Feb 21at CHI126 − 110W
Feb 19at NY126 − 111W
Feb 11at TOR113 − 95W
Feb 9at CHA110 − 104W
Feb 6vs NY118 − 80W
Feb 5vs WSH117 − 126L
Feb 3vs DEN124 − 121W
Feb 1vs BKN130 − 77W
Jan 30at GS131 − 124W
Jan 29at PHX96 − 114L