bayesRatings

Spurs at Knicks

NBA · Sunday, Mar 1 · 12:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final SA 89 – NY 114
← NBA / Mar 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA2120282089
NY22292934114
Team box
SA·NY
32-77
field goals
43-97
9-34
3-pointers
17-48
16-22
free throws
11-19
41
rebounds
54
25
assists
27
22
turnovers
14
38
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3425132
Mikal BridgesNY332552
Jalen BrunsonNY322447
Devin VassellSA351873
Mohamed DiawaraNY151440
Stephon CastleSA301344

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +26
SA +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 26 · SA 12lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 44%, NY 56% · Updated Mar 1

Expected margin
NY by 2.1
Expected score
NY 115.0 – 112.9 SA
Expected total
227.9
SpursThe matchupKnicks
+127Our fair odds−127
112.9Expected points115.0
+0.42Power rating+0.49
118.4Points / game117.4
112.0Allowed / game111.5
47.9FG%47.1
35.23P%37.6
46.4Rebounds / game46.1
43−17Season record39−22
10−0Last 106−4
David Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Ingram · Mason PlumleeOut (4 each)Dillon Jones · Miles McBride
Pacome Dadiet · Trey Jemison III

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · NY chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+12744%————
NYNew York Knicks−12756%————
SpreadNY by 2.1
SASan Antonio Spurs+2.1our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.9
Over227.9our total————
Under227.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 2.1 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%
← SA wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more46%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more32%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.531%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·NY
Feb 26 at BKN
last game
Feb 27 at MIL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 1, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAMason Plumlee · return to competition reconditioningOut
New York Knicks
NYDillon Jones · g league - two-wayOut
NYMiles McBride · pelvic; core muscle surgeryOut
NYPacome Dadiet · g league - on assignmentOut
NYTrey Jemison III · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
SA·NY
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
118.4
points / game
117.4
112.0
points allowed / game
111.5
43−17
season record
39−22
21−6
home record
23−8
22−11
away record
16−14
W11
streak
W1
10−0
last 10
6−4
47.9
FG%
47.1
35.2
3P%
37.6
46.4
rebounds / game
46.1
27.1
assists / game
27.1
13.6
turnovers / game
13.5
50.9
points in paint / game
46.9

Rating Trend

SA · NY · 117 days
San Antonio SpursNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NY 6−4
Dec 31, 2025at SASA 134 − 132
Dec 16, 2025at NYNY 124 − 113
Mar 19, 2025at SASA 120 − 105
Dec 25, 2024at NYNY 117 − 114
Mar 29, 2024at SASA 130 − 126
Nov 8, 2023at NYNY 126 − 105
Jan 4, 2023at NYNY 117 − 114
Dec 29, 2022at SASA 122 − 115
Jan 10, 2022at NYNY 111 − 96
Dec 7, 2021at SANY 121 − 109

SA · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W
Feb 23at DET114 − 103W
Feb 21vs SAC139 − 122W
Feb 19vs PHX121 − 94W
Feb 11at GS126 − 113W
Feb 10at LAL136 − 108W
Feb 7vs DAL138 − 125W
Feb 5at DAL135 − 123W
Feb 4vs OKC116 − 106W

NY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 27at MIL127 − 98W
Feb 24at CLE94 − 109L
Feb 22at CHI105 − 99W
Feb 21vs HOU108 − 106W
Feb 19vs DET111 − 126L
Feb 11at PHI138 − 89W
Feb 10vs IND134 − 137L
Feb 8at BOS111 − 89W
Feb 6at DET80 − 118L
Feb 4vs DEN134 − 127W