bayesRatings

Spurs at Nets

NBA · Thursday, Feb 26 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final SA 126 – BKN 110
← NBA / Feb 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA36353322126
BKN22342826110
Team box
SA·BKN
43-87
field goals
41-89
17-42
3-pointers
13-34
23-27
free throws
15-17
39
rebounds
50
36
assists
26
9
turnovers
15
48
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julian ChampagnieSA242622
Michael Porter Jr.BKN3025141
Stephon CastleSA251825
Day'Ron SharpeBKN1914114
Devin VassellSA281475
Danny WolfBKN221452

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +26
SA +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 0 · SA 26lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 75%, BKN 25% · Updated Feb 26

Expected margin
SA by 8.8
Expected score
SA 115.4 – 106.5 BKN
Expected total
221.9
SpursThe matchupNets
−292Our fair odds+292
115.4Expected points106.5
+0.42Power rating−0.85
118.2Points / game106.9
112.0Allowed / game114.8
47.9FG%44.4
35.13P%34.2
46.5Rebounds / game40.3
42−17Season record15−42
10−0Last 102−8
David Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Ingram · Mason PlumleeOut (4 each)Ben Saraf · Chaney Johnson
E.J. Liddell · Tyson Etienne

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · BKN chance
Our model fair74.5%25.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−29275%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+29225%————
SpreadSA by 8.8
SASan Antonio Spurs−8.8our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+8.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.9
Over221.9our total————
Under221.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 8.8 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%
← SA wins byBKN wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more65%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more48%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.9 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.570%
Total over 221.550%
Total over 231.531%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Brooklyn Nets
GEgor Deminstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·BKN
Feb 25 at TOR
last game
Feb 24 vs DAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 26, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAMason Plumlee · return to competition reconditioningOut
SAKeldon Johnson · left shoulder; sprainQuestionable
SAStephon Castle · left hip flexor; tightnessQuestionable
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
SA·BKN
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
−0.85
118.2
points / game
106.9
112.0
points allowed / game
114.8
42−17
season record
15−42
21−6
home record
8−20
21−11
away record
7−22
W10
streak
L5
10−0
last 10
2−8
47.9
FG%
44.4
35.1
3P%
34.2
46.5
rebounds / game
40.3
26.9
assists / game
25.4
13.7
turnovers / game
15.5
51.0
points in paint / game
43.3

Rating Trend

SA · BKN · 114 days
San Antonio SpursBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BKN 4−5
Oct 26, 2025at SASA 118 − 107
Mar 4, 2025at SASA 127 − 113
Dec 27, 2024at BKNSA 96 − 87
Mar 17, 2024at SASA 122 − 115
Feb 10, 2024at BKNBKN 123 − 103
Jan 17, 2023at SASA 106 − 98
Jan 2, 2023at BKNBKN 139 − 103
Jan 21, 2022at SABKN 117 − 102
Jan 9, 2022at BKNBKN 121 − 119

SA · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W
Feb 23at DET114 − 103W
Feb 21vs SAC139 − 122W
Feb 19vs PHX121 − 94W
Feb 11at GS126 − 113W
Feb 10at LAL136 − 108W
Feb 7vs DAL138 − 125W
Feb 5at DAL135 − 123W
Feb 4vs OKC116 − 106W
Feb 1vs ORL112 − 103W

BKN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Feb 24vs DAL114 − 123L
Feb 22at ATL104 − 115L
Feb 20at OKC86 − 105L
Feb 19at CLE84 − 112L
Feb 11vs IND110 − 115L
Feb 9vs CHI123 − 115W
Feb 7vs WSH127 − 113W
Feb 5at ORL98 − 118L
Feb 3vs LAL109 − 125L
Feb 1at DET77 − 130L