bayesRatings

Nets at Hawks

NBA · Sunday, Feb 22 · 2:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final BKN 104 – ATL 115
← NBA / Feb 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN30263117104
ATL32282926115
Team box
BKN·ATL
38-85
field goals
42-87
12-34
3-pointers
13-33
16-22
free throws
18-21
34
rebounds
52
29
assists
28
13
turnovers
17
48
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL3826124
Michael Porter Jr.BKN351876
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL351736
Jock LandaleATL161761
CJ McCollumATL321684
Nic ClaxtonBKN311585

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +11
BKN +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 11 · BKN 11lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 29%, ATL 71% · Updated Feb 22

Expected margin
ATL by 8.1
Expected score
ATL 117.5 – 109.4 BKN
Expected total
226.8
NetsThe matchupHawks
+244Our fair odds−244
109.4Expected points117.5
−0.81Power rating−0.10
106.8Points / game116.9
114.7Allowed / game118.6
44.3FG%47.0
34.13P%36.7
40.6Rebounds / game42.4
15−40Season record27−31
3−7Last 104−6
Ben Saraf · Chaney Johnson
E.J. Liddell · Josh Minott
Tyson EtienneOutCaleb Houstan · Jonathan Kuminga
RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · ATL chance
Our model fair29.0%71.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+24429%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−24471%————
SpreadATL by 8.1
BKNBrooklyn Nets+8.1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−8.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.8
Over226.8our total————
Under226.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 8.1 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 50 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 50 points: <1%
← BKN wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more62%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more46%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GEgor Deminstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·ATL
Feb 20 at OKC
last game
Feb 20 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 22, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNJosh Minott · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut
BKNZiaire Williams · personal reasonsOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; bone bruiseOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
BKN·ATL
−0.81
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
106.8
points / game
116.9
114.7
points allowed / game
118.6
15−40
season record
27−31
8−19
home record
10−16
7−21
away record
17−15
L3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
44.3
FG%
47.0
34.1
3P%
36.7
40.6
rebounds / game
42.4
25.3
assists / game
30.3
15.7
turnovers / game
14.3
43.1
points in paint / game
51.3

Rating Trend

BKN · ATL · 110 days
Brooklyn NetsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Oct 29, 2025at BKNATL 117 − 112
Apr 10, 2025at BKNATL 133 − 109
Mar 16, 2025at BKNBKN 122 − 114
Oct 23, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 116
Mar 2, 2024at BKNBKN 114 − 102
Feb 29, 2024at BKNBKN 124 − 97
Dec 6, 2023at ATLBKN 114 − 113
Nov 22, 2023at ATLATL 147 − 145
Mar 31, 2023at BKNBKN 124 − 107
Feb 26, 2023at ATLATL 129 − 127

BKN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Feb 20at OKC86 − 105L
Feb 19at CLE84 − 112L
Feb 11vs IND110 − 115L
Feb 9vs CHI123 − 115W
Feb 7vs WSH127 − 113W
Feb 5at ORL98 − 118L
Feb 3vs LAL109 − 125L
Feb 1at DET77 − 130L
Jan 30at UTAH109 − 99W
Jan 29at DEN103 − 107L

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 20vs MIA97 − 128L
Feb 19at PHI117 − 107W
Feb 11at CHA107 − 110L
Feb 9at MIN116 − 138L
Feb 7vs CHA119 − 126L
Feb 5vs UTAH121 − 119W
Feb 3at MIA127 − 115W
Jan 31at IND124 − 129L
Jan 29vs HOU86 − 104L
Jan 28at BOS117 − 106W