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Thunder at Bulls

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 3 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final OKC 116 – CHI 108
← NBA / Mar 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC26293229116
CHI22322232108
Team box
OKC·CHI
43-99
field goals
39-90
10-42
3-pointers
17-49
20-24
free throws
13-19
51
rebounds
53
23
assists
27
9
turnovers
19
52
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jared McCainOKC252031
Collin SextonCHI282012
Isaiah JoeOKC301920
Guerschon YabuseleCHI2918122
Aaron WigginsOKC341874
Jaylin WilliamsOKC3317166

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +19
OKC +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 2 · OKC 19lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 78%, CHI 22% · Updated Mar 3

Expected margin
OKC by 12.8
Expected score
OKC 123.5 – 110.6 CHI
Expected total
234.1
ThunderThe matchupBulls
−365Our fair odds+365
123.5Expected points110.6
+1.14Power rating−0.34
119.2Points / game115.8
107.9Allowed / game120.1
48.5FG%46.9
36.33P%36.5
43.9Rebounds / game44.6
47−15Season record25−36
7−3Last 101−9
Ajay Mitchell · Branden Carlson
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jalen Williams
Nikola TopicOut (5 each)Anfernee Simons · Jaden Ivey
Jalen Smith · Noa Essengue
Patrick Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · CHI chance
Our model fair78.5%21.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−36578%————
CHIChicago Bulls+36522%————
SpreadOKC by 12.8
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−12.8our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls+12.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.1
Over234.1our total————
Under234.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 12.8 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 1%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 47 points: <1%
← OKC wins byCHI wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more76%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more60%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more43%
Within 5 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.1 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.548%
Total over 244.529%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GIsaiah Joestarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FGuerschon Yabuselestarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·CHI
Mar 1 at DAL
last game
Mar 1 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 3, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strain/ left ankle sprainOut
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; injury managementOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · abdominal; strain; injury managementOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIJaden Ivey · left patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; strainOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIPatrick Williams · right quadricep; strainOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
OKC·CHI
+1.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
119.2
points / game
115.8
107.9
points allowed / game
120.1
47−15
season record
25−36
25−7
home record
16−17
22−8
away record
9−19
W2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
1−9
48.5
FG%
46.9
36.3
3P%
36.5
43.9
rebounds / game
44.6
25.6
assists / game
28.9
12.7
turnovers / game
14.9
50.1
points in paint / game
51.5

Rating Trend

OKC · CHI · 119 days
Oklahoma City ThunderChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHI 2−6
Mar 31, 2025at OKCOKC 145 − 117
Oct 26, 2024at CHIOKC 114 − 95
Nov 22, 2023at OKCOKC 116 − 102
Oct 25, 2023at CHIOKC 124 − 104
Jan 13, 2023at CHIOKC 124 − 110
Nov 25, 2022at OKCOKC 123 − 119
Feb 12, 2022at CHICHI 106 − 101
Jan 24, 2022at OKCCHI 111 − 110

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W
Feb 25at DET116 − 124L
Feb 24at TOR116 − 107W
Feb 22vs CLE121 − 113W
Feb 20vs BKN105 − 86W
Feb 12vs MIL93 − 110L
Feb 11at PHX136 − 109W
Feb 9at LAL119 − 110W
Feb 7vs HOU106 − 112L

CHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Mar 1vs MIL120 − 97W
Feb 26vs POR112 − 121L
Feb 24vs CHA99 − 131L
Feb 22vs NY99 − 105L
Feb 21vs DET110 − 126L
Feb 19vs TOR101 − 110L
Feb 11at BOS105 − 124L
Feb 9at BKN115 − 123L
Feb 7vs DEN120 − 136L
Feb 5at TOR107 − 123L