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Bucks at Bulls

NBA · Sunday, Mar 1 · 2:30 PM CT · United Center · Final MIL 97 – CHI 120
← NBA / Mar 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL323423897
CHI30213633120
Team box
MIL·CHI
35-95
field goals
43-84
13-46
3-pointers
18-49
14-17
free throws
16-23
45
rebounds
50
26
assists
34
19
turnovers
18
26
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Collin SextonCHI322232
Josh GiddeyCHI32201410
Matas BuzelisCHI322073
Bobby PortisMIL241850
Leonard MillerCHI271554
Cam ThomasMIL181513

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +23
MIL +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 23 · MIL 16lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 50%, CHI 50% · Updated Mar 1

Expected margin
MIL by 0.2
Expected score
MIL 117.1 – 117.0 CHI
Expected total
234.1
BucksThe matchupBulls
−101Our fair odds+101
117.1Expected points117.0
−0.13Power rating−0.31
112.1Points / game115.7
115.6Allowed / game120.5
48.2FG%46.9
39.23P%36.5
41.1Rebounds / game44.5
26−32Season record24−36
7−3Last 100−10
Alex Antetokounmpo · Cormac Ryan
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Taurean Prince
Thanasis AntetokounmpoOut (5 each)Anfernee Simons · Jaden Ivey
Jalen Smith · Noa Essengue
Patrick Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CHI chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−10150%————
CHIChicago Bulls+10150%————
SpreadMIL by 0.2
MILMilwaukee Bucks−0.2our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.1
Over234.1our total————
Under234.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 0.2 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%
← MIL wins byCHI wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more40%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more27%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

234.1 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.548%
Total over 244.529%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FGuerschon Yabuselestarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CHI
Feb 27 vs NY
last game
Feb 26 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 1, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILCormac Ryan · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILThanasis Antetokounmpo · n/a; illnessOut
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIJaden Ivey · left patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; strainOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIPatrick Williams · right quadricep; strainOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
MIL·CHI
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
112.1
points / game
115.7
115.6
points allowed / game
120.5
26−32
season record
24−36
14−14
home record
15−17
12−18
away record
9−19
L1
streak
L11
7−3
last 10
0−10
48.2
FG%
46.9
39.2
3P%
36.5
41.1
rebounds / game
44.5
26.0
assists / game
28.8
14.5
turnovers / game
14.8
44.0
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

MIL · CHI · 117 days
Milwaukee BucksChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 3−7
Feb 3at MILMIL 131 − 115
Dec 27, 2025at CHIMIL 112 − 103
Nov 7, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 110
Dec 28, 2024at CHICHI 116 − 111
Dec 23, 2024at CHIMIL 112 − 91
Nov 20, 2024at MILMIL 122 − 106
Oct 25, 2024at MILCHI 133 − 122
Mar 1, 2024at CHIMIL 113 − 97
Dec 11, 2023at MILMIL 133 − 129
Nov 30, 2023at CHICHI 120 − 113

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L
Feb 25vs CLE118 − 116W
Feb 24vs MIA128 − 117W
Feb 22vs TOR94 − 122L
Feb 20at NO139 − 118W
Feb 12at OKC110 − 93W
Feb 11at ORL116 − 108W
Feb 9at ORL99 − 118L
Feb 6vs IND105 − 99W
Feb 4vs NO141 − 137W

CHI · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Feb 26vs POR112 − 121L
Feb 24vs CHA99 − 131L
Feb 22vs NY99 − 105L
Feb 21vs DET110 − 126L
Feb 19vs TOR101 − 110L
Feb 11at BOS105 − 124L
Feb 9at BKN115 − 123L
Feb 7vs DEN120 − 136L
Feb 5at TOR107 − 123L
Feb 3at MIL115 − 131L