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Heat at Bucks

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 24 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final MIA 117 – MIL 128
← NBA / Feb 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA29293524117
MIL30332639128
Team box
MIA·MIL
40-94
field goals
48-97
16-48
3-pointers
16-39
21-27
free throws
16-19
51
rebounds
46
32
assists
25
16
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL373277
Norman PowellMIA302660
Ryan RollinsMIL372145
Bobby PortisMIL242121
Kyle KuzmaMIL251940
Bam AdebayoMIA311892

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +12
MIA +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 12 · MIA 9lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 52%, MIL 48% · Updated Feb 24

Expected margin
MIA by 1.7
Expected score
MIA 115.8 – 114.1 MIL
Expected total
229.8
HeatThe matchupBucks
−109Our fair odds+109
115.8Expected points114.1
+0.13Power rating−0.13
120.0Points / game112.0
116.9Allowed / game115.4
46.4FG%48.2
35.83P%39.1
47.2Rebounds / game41.2
31−27Season record24−31
6−4Last 106−4
Nikola Jovic · Terry RozierOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · MIL chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−10952%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+10948%————
SpreadMIA by 1.7
MIAMiami Heat−1.7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.8
Over229.8our total————
Under229.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 1.7 expected
Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%
← MIA wins byMIL wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more44%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more30%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.8 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·MIL
Feb 21 vs MEM
last game
Feb 22 vs TOR
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 24, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIANikola Jovic · low back; tightnessOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIADavion Mitchell · head; illnessProbable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
MIA·MIL
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
120.0
points / game
112.0
116.9
points allowed / game
115.4
31−27
season record
24−31
17−11
home record
12−13
14−16
away record
12−18
W3
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
46.4
FG%
48.2
35.8
3P%
39.1
47.2
rebounds / game
41.2
28.7
assists / game
26.0
14.1
turnovers / game
14.6
54.6
points in paint / game
44.5

Rating Trend

MIA · MIL · 112 days
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Nov 26, 2025at MIAMIA 106 − 103
Apr 5, 2025at MIAMIL 121 − 115
Feb 23, 2025at MILMIL 120 − 113
Jan 23, 2025at MILMIL 125 − 96
Nov 26, 2024at MIAMIL 106 − 103
Feb 13, 2024at MILMIA 123 − 97
Nov 28, 2023at MIAMIL 131 − 124
Oct 30, 2023at MILMIL 122 − 114
Apr 26, 2023at MILMIA 128 − 126post
Apr 24, 2023at MIAMIA 119 − 114post

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Feb 21vs MEM136 − 120W
Feb 20at ATL128 − 97W
Feb 11at NO123 − 111W
Feb 9vs UTAH111 − 115L
Feb 8at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 6at BOS96 − 98L
Feb 3vs ATL115 − 127L
Feb 1vs CHI134 − 91W
Jan 31vs CHI118 − 125L
Jan 29at CHI116 − 113W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Feb 22vs TOR94 − 122L
Feb 20at NO139 − 118W
Feb 12at OKC110 − 93W
Feb 11at ORL116 − 108W
Feb 9at ORL99 − 118L
Feb 6vs IND105 − 99W
Feb 4vs NO141 − 137W
Feb 3vs CHI131 − 115W
Feb 1at BOS79 − 107L
Jan 29at WSH99 − 109L