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Cavaliers at Bucks

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 25 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final CLE 116 – MIL 118
← NBA / Feb 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE33303122116
MIL33293125118
Team box
CLE·MIL
42-87
field goals
48-88
12-40
3-pointers
19-45
20-27
free throws
3-5
44
rebounds
36
28
assists
28
11
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jarrett AllenCLE3227111
Dennis SchroderCLE352625
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL382085
Ryan RollinsMIL351839
Kyle KuzmaMIL261745
Myles TurnerMIL241530

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +12
CLE +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 12 · CLE 7lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 63%, MIL 37% · Updated Feb 25

Expected margin
CLE by 6.0
Expected score
CLE 119.3 – 113.3 MIL
Expected total
232.6
CavaliersThe matchupBucks
−171Our fair odds+171
119.3Expected points113.3
+0.59Power rating−0.13
119.5Points / game112.2
115.0Allowed / game115.4
47.8FG%48.2
36.23P%39.1
44.7Rebounds / game41.3
37−22Season record25−31
8−2Last 107−3
Darius Brown · Donovan Mitchell
Evan Mobley · Max Strus
Riley MinixOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MIL chance
Our model fair63.1%36.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−17163%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+17137%————
SpreadCLE by 6.0
CLECleveland Cavaliers−6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+6our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.6
Over232.6our total————
Under232.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 6.0 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%
← CLE wins byMIL wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more57%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more41%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.6 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDennis Schroderstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MIL
Feb 24 vs NY
last game
Feb 24 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 25, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDarius Brown · g league - two-wayOut
CLEDonovan Mitchell · right groin; strainOut
CLEEvan Mobley · left calf; injury maintenanceOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLERiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
CLETristan Enaruna · g league - two-wayOut
CLEJames Harden · right thumb; fractureQuestionable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
CLE·MIL
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
119.5
points / game
112.2
115.0
points allowed / game
115.4
37−22
season record
25−31
20−11
home record
13−13
17−11
away record
12−18
W1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
7−3
47.8
FG%
48.2
36.2
3P%
39.1
44.7
rebounds / game
41.3
28.4
assists / game
26.0
14.4
turnovers / game
14.5
51.2
points in paint / game
44.5

Rating Trend

CLE · MIL · 113 days
Cleveland CavaliersMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 2−8
Nov 17, 2025at CLECLE 118 − 106
Oct 26, 2025at CLECLE 118 − 113
Mar 9, 2025at MILCLE 112 − 100
Dec 20, 2024at CLECLE 124 − 101
Nov 4, 2024at CLECLE 116 − 114
Nov 2, 2024at MILCLE 114 − 113
Jan 26, 2024at MILCLE 112 − 100
Jan 24, 2024at MILMIL 126 − 116
Jan 17, 2024at CLECLE 135 − 95
Dec 29, 2023at CLEMIL 119 − 111

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Feb 24vs NY109 − 94W
Feb 22at OKC113 − 121L
Feb 20at CHA118 − 113W
Feb 19vs BKN112 − 84W
Feb 11vs WSH138 − 113W
Feb 9at DEN119 − 117W
Feb 7at SAC132 − 126W
Feb 4at LAC124 − 91W
Feb 1at POR130 − 111W
Jan 30at PHX113 − 126L

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Feb 24vs MIA128 − 117W
Feb 22vs TOR94 − 122L
Feb 20at NO139 − 118W
Feb 12at OKC110 − 93W
Feb 11at ORL116 − 108W
Feb 9at ORL99 − 118L
Feb 6vs IND105 − 99W
Feb 4vs NO141 − 137W
Feb 3vs CHI131 − 115W
Feb 1at BOS79 − 107L