bayesRatings

Celtics at Nuggets

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 25 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final BOS 84 – DEN 103
← NBA / Feb 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS2424191784
DEN21263026103
Team box
BOS·DEN
29-83
field goals
39-93
12-43
3-pointers
15-43
14-18
free throws
10-18
48
rebounds
54
18
assists
28
14
turnovers
9
28
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN3330126
Jaylen BrownBOS3423113
Derrick WhiteBOS332063
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN211444
Julian StrawtherDEN261211
Jonas ValanciunasDEN121162

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +19
BOS +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 19 · BOS 8lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 56%, DEN 44% · Updated Feb 25

Expected margin
BOS by 3.2
Expected score
BOS 115.4 – 112.2 DEN
Expected total
227.6
CelticsThe matchupNuggets
−126Our fair odds+126
115.4Expected points112.2
+0.80Power rating+0.39
115.0Points / game120.8
107.6Allowed / game116.3
46.8FG%49.6
36.23P%39.3
45.9Rebounds / game43.0
38−19Season record36−22
9−1Last 104−6
Amari Williams · Jayson Tatum
Max ShulgaOutAaron Gordon · Curtis Jones
Jalen Pickett · Peyton Watson
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · DEN chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−12656%————
DENDenver Nuggets+12644%————
SpreadBOS by 3.2
BOSBoston Celtics−3.2our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets+3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.6
Over227.6our total————
Under227.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 3.2 expected
Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%
← BOS wins byDEN wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more49%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more34%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.6 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·DEN
Feb 24 at PHX
last game
Feb 22 at GS
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 25, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSAmari Williams · g league - on assignmentOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENJalen Pickett · right knee; sorenessOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJamal Murray · right hamstring; tightnessProbable
DENJulian Strawther · left great toe; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
BOS·DEN
+0.80
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
115.0
points / game
120.8
107.6
points allowed / game
116.3
38−19
season record
36−22
18−9
home record
15−11
20−10
away record
21−11
W4
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
4−6
46.8
FG%
49.6
36.2
3P%
39.3
45.9
rebounds / game
43.0
24.2
assists / game
28.2
12.1
turnovers / game
12.9
44.6
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

BOS · DEN · 113 days
Boston CelticsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DEN 4−5
Jan 7at BOSDEN 114 − 110
Mar 2, 2025at BOSBOS 110 − 103
Jan 7, 2025at DENBOS 118 − 106
Mar 7, 2024at DENDEN 115 − 109
Jan 19, 2024at BOSDEN 102 − 100
Jan 1, 2023at DENDEN 123 − 111
Nov 11, 2022at BOSBOS 131 − 112
Mar 20, 2022at DENBOS 124 − 104
Feb 11, 2022at BOSBOS 108 − 102

BOS · Last 10

9−1 · streak W4
Feb 24at PHX97 − 81W
Feb 22at LAL111 − 89W
Feb 19at GS121 − 110W
Feb 11vs CHI124 − 105W
Feb 8vs NY89 − 111L
Feb 6vs MIA98 − 96W
Feb 4at HOU114 − 93W
Feb 3at DAL110 − 100W
Feb 1vs MIL107 − 79W
Jan 30vs SAC112 − 93W

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 22at GS117 − 128L
Feb 20at POR157 − 103W
Feb 19at LAC114 − 115L
Feb 11vs MEM122 − 116W
Feb 9vs CLE117 − 119L
Feb 7at CHI136 − 120W
Feb 4at NY127 − 134L
Feb 3at DET121 − 124L
Feb 1vs OKC111 − 121L
Jan 30vs LAC122 − 109W