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Lakers at Nuggets

NBA · Thursday, Mar 5 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final LAL 113 – DEN 120
← NBA / Mar 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL22323227113
DEN32322927120
Team box
LAL·DEN
45-87
field goals
39-75
13-31
3-pointers
14-31
10-15
free throws
28-31
32
rebounds
41
30
assists
27
10
turnovers
18
54
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN38281213
Jamal MurrayDEN382847
Luka DoncicLAL4027117
Jaxson HayesLAL271952
Julian StrawtherDEN291820
LeBron JamesLAL341658

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +15
LAL +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 15 · LAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 40%, DEN 60% · Updated Mar 5

Expected margin
DEN by 3.3
Expected score
DEN 118.9 – 115.6 LAL
Expected total
234.5
LakersThe matchupNuggets
+149Our fair odds−149
115.6Expected points118.9
+0.17Power rating+0.40
115.8Points / game120.5
115.2Allowed / game116.1
49.9FG%49.4
35.73P%39.1
41.0Rebounds / game43.3
37−24Season record38−24
5−5Last 105−5
—OutAaron Gordon · Curtis Jones
Peyton Watson · Spencer Jones

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · DEN chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+14940%————
DENDenver Nuggets−14960%————
SpreadDEN by 3.3
LALLos Angeles Lakers+3.3our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.5
Over234.5our total————
Under234.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 3.3 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%
← LAL wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more49%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more34%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.5 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FZeke Nnajistarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·DEN
Mar 3 vs NO
last game
Mar 2 at UTAH
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 5, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALMaxi Kleber · back; sorenessQuestionable
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENSpencer Jones · right shoulder; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right ankle; inflammationQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
LAL·DEN
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
115.8
points / game
120.5
115.2
points allowed / game
116.1
37−24
season record
38−24
18−12
home record
16−12
19−12
away record
22−12
W3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
49.9
FG%
49.4
35.7
3P%
39.1
41.0
rebounds / game
43.3
25.4
assists / game
28.0
14.8
turnovers / game
13.0
51.5
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

LAL · DEN · 121 days
Los Angeles LakersDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 6−4
Jan 20at DENLAL 115 − 107
Mar 19, 2025at LALLAL 120 − 108
Mar 14, 2025at DENDEN 131 − 126
Feb 22, 2025at DENLAL 123 − 100
Nov 23, 2024at LALDEN 127 − 102
Apr 29, 2024at DENDEN 108 − 106post
Apr 27, 2024at LALLAL 119 − 108post
Apr 25, 2024at LALDEN 112 − 105post
Apr 22, 2024at DENDEN 101 − 99post
Apr 20, 2024at DENDEN 114 − 103post

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Mar 3vs NO110 − 101W
Mar 1vs SAC128 − 104W
Feb 28at GS129 − 101W
Feb 26at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 24vs ORL109 − 110L
Feb 22vs BOS89 − 111L
Feb 20vs LAC125 − 122W
Feb 12vs DAL124 − 104W
Feb 10vs SA108 − 136L
Feb 9vs OKC110 − 119L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 2at UTAH128 − 125W
Mar 1vs MIN108 − 117L
Feb 27at OKC121 − 127L
Feb 25vs BOS103 − 84W
Feb 22at GS117 − 128L
Feb 20at POR157 − 103W
Feb 19at LAC114 − 115L
Feb 11vs MEM122 − 116W
Feb 9vs CLE117 − 119L
Feb 7at CHI136 − 120W