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Lakers at Warriors

NBA · Saturday, Feb 28 · 7:30 PM CT · Chase Center · Final LAL 129 – GS 101
← NBA / Feb 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL33323430129
GS20272529101
Team box
LAL·GS
48-90
field goals
41-91
19-41
3-pointers
12-44
14-20
free throws
7-9
47
rebounds
40
29
assists
32
10
turnovers
11
56
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL292668
LeBron JamesLAL282279
Austin ReavesLAL281813
Luke KennardLAL271633
Jake LaRaviaLAL271553
Gui SantosGS271442

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +32
LAL +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 2 · LAL 32lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 44%, GS 56% · Updated Feb 28

Expected margin
GS by 3.3
Expected score
GS 115.2 – 111.8 LAL
Expected total
227.0
LakersThe matchupWarriors
+129Our fair odds−129
111.8Expected points115.2
+0.14Power rating+0.22
115.5Points / game115.8
115.9Allowed / game113.8
49.9FG%46.2
35.43P%35.9
40.8Rebounds / game42.9
34−24Season record31−28
5−5Last 104−6
Adou Thiero · Bronny James
Rui HachimuraOutJimmy Butler III · Kristaps Porzingis
LJ Cryer · Seth Curry
Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · GS chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+12944%————
GSGolden State Warriors−12956%————
SpreadGS by 3.3
LALLos Angeles Lakers+3.3our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.0
Over227.0our total————
Under227.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 3.3 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%
← LAL wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more49%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more34%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.548%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·GS
Feb 26 at PHX
last game
Feb 25 at MEM
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 28, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · g league - on assignmentOut
LALBronny James · g league - on assignmentOut
LALRui Hachimura · illness; -Out
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illnessOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSDraymond Green · left low back; injury managementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
LAL·GS
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
115.5
points / game
115.8
115.9
points allowed / game
113.8
34−24
season record
31−28
16−12
home record
19−11
18−12
away record
12−17
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
49.9
FG%
46.2
35.4
3P%
35.9
40.8
rebounds / game
42.9
25.2
assists / game
29.2
14.8
turnovers / game
15.7
51.5
points in paint / game
43.9

Rating Trend

LAL · GS · 116 days
Los Angeles LakersGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 5−5
Feb 7at LALLAL 105 − 99
Oct 21, 2025at LALGS 119 − 109
Apr 3, 2025at LALGS 123 − 116
Feb 6, 2025at LALLAL 120 − 112
Jan 25, 2025at GSLAL 118 − 108
Dec 25, 2024at GSLAL 115 − 113
Apr 9, 2024at LALGS 134 − 120
Mar 16, 2024at LALGS 128 − 121
Feb 22, 2024at GSGS 128 − 110
Jan 27, 2024at GSLAL 145 − 144

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Feb 26at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 24vs ORL109 − 110L
Feb 22vs BOS89 − 111L
Feb 20vs LAC125 − 122W
Feb 12vs DAL124 − 104W
Feb 10vs SA108 − 136L
Feb 9vs OKC110 − 119L
Feb 7vs GS105 − 99W
Feb 5vs PHI119 − 115W
Feb 3at BKN125 − 109W

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L