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Lakers at Suns

NBA · Thursday, Feb 26 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final LAL 110 – PHX 113
← NBA / Feb 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL27223130110
PHX22273133113
Team box
LAL·PHX
38-75
field goals
40-87
11-29
3-pointers
22-50
23-26
free throws
11-14
39
rebounds
41
20
assists
22
13
turnovers
12
46
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL394188
Grayson AllenPHX312816
Collin GillespiePHX312133
LeBron JamesLAL351565
Austin ReavesLAL361432
Royce O'NealePHX281363

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +13
LAL +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 12 · LAL 13lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 48%, PHX 52% · Updated Feb 26

Expected margin
PHX by 1.3
Expected score
PHX 113.6 – 112.3 LAL
Expected total
225.9
LakersThe matchupSuns
+110Our fair odds−110
112.3Expected points113.6
+0.14Power rating+0.05
115.6Points / game112.1
115.9Allowed / game111.4
49.9FG%45.5
35.43P%35.7
40.9Rebounds / game43.3
34−23Season record33−26
5−5Last 103−7
Adou Thiero · Bronny James
Rui HachimuraOutCole Anthony · Devin Booker
Dillon Brooks · Haywood Highsmith
Jordan Goodwin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · PHX chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+11048%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−11052%————
SpreadPHX by 1.3
LALLos Angeles Lakers+1.3our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.9
Over225.9our total————
Under225.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 1.3 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%
← LAL wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more44%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more30%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.9 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.531%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Phoenix Suns
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FRyan Dunnstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·PHX
Feb 24 vs ORL
last game
Feb 24 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 26, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · g league - on assignmentOut
LALBronny James · g league - on assignmentOut
LALRui Hachimura · illness; -Out
LALJaxson Hayes · right ankle; sprainProbable
Phoenix Suns
PHXCole Anthony · not with teamOut
PHXDevin Booker · right hip; strainOut
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementOut
PHXJordan Goodwin · left calf; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
LAL·PHX
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
115.6
points / game
112.1
115.9
points allowed / game
111.4
34−23
season record
33−26
16−12
home record
19−12
18−11
away record
14−14
L2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
49.9
FG%
45.5
35.4
3P%
35.7
40.9
rebounds / game
43.3
25.3
assists / game
24.6
14.9
turnovers / game
14.9
51.6
points in paint / game
43.7

Rating Trend

LAL · PHX · 114 days
Los Angeles LakersPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 6−4
Dec 23, 2025at PHXPHX 132 − 108
Dec 14, 2025at PHXLAL 116 − 114
Dec 1, 2025at LALPHX 125 − 108
Mar 16, 2025at LALLAL 107 − 96
Nov 26, 2024at PHXPHX 127 − 100
Oct 28, 2024at PHXPHX 109 − 105
Oct 25, 2024at LALLAL 123 − 116
Feb 25, 2024at PHXPHX 123 − 113
Jan 11, 2024at LALPHX 127 − 109
Dec 5, 2023at LALLAL 106 − 103

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Feb 24vs ORL109 − 110L
Feb 22vs BOS89 − 111L
Feb 20vs LAC125 − 122W
Feb 12vs DAL124 − 104W
Feb 10vs SA108 − 136L
Feb 9vs OKC110 − 119L
Feb 7vs GS105 − 99W
Feb 5vs PHI119 − 115W
Feb 3at BKN125 − 109W
Feb 1at NY100 − 112L

PHX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Feb 24vs BOS81 − 97L
Feb 22vs POR77 − 92L
Feb 21vs ORL113 − 110W
Feb 19at SA94 − 121L
Feb 11vs OKC109 − 136L
Feb 10vs DAL120 − 111W
Feb 7vs PHI103 − 109L
Feb 5vs GS97 − 101L
Feb 3at POR130 − 125W
Feb 1vs LAC93 − 117L