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Magic at Suns

NBA · Saturday, Feb 21 · 4:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final ORL 110 – PHX 113
← NBA / Feb 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OT2OTT
ORL2526222377110
PHX21223419710113
Team box
ORL·PHX
42-98
field goals
40-117
10-39
3-pointers
16-55
16-19
free throws
17-24
53
rebounds
65
24
assists
20
16
turnovers
9
60
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Desmond BaneORL403443
Grayson AllenPHX332772
Paolo BancheroORL4726148
Collin GillespiePHX451956
Jordan GoodwinPHX251761
Jalen GreenPHX371675

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +12
ORL +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT2OT
largest lead: PHX 11 · ORL 12lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 42%, PHX 58% · Updated Feb 21

Expected margin
PHX by 3.2
Expected score
PHX 111.8 – 108.6 ORL
Expected total
220.3
MagicThe matchupSuns
+137Our fair odds−137
108.6Expected points111.8
−0.01Power rating+0.11
115.4Points / game113.3
114.9Allowed / game112.0
46.4FG%46.0
34.13P%36.1
43.2Rebounds / game43.1
29−25Season record32−24
6−4Last 105−5
Alex Morales · Colin Castleton
Franz Wagner · Jalen SuggsOut (4 each)Cole Anthony · Devin Booker
Haywood Highsmith · Koby Brea

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · PHX chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+13742%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−13758%————
SpreadPHX by 3.2
ORLOrlando Magic+3.2our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.3
Over220.3our total————
Under220.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 3.2 expected
Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%
← ORL wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more49%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more34%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.3 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.569%
Total over 220.549%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Phoenix Suns
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·PHX
Feb 19 at SAC
last game
Feb 19 at SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 21, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left ankle; high ankle sprain/injury managementOut
ORLJalen Suggs · back; spasmsOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXCole Anthony · not with teamOut
PHXDevin Booker · right hip; strainOut
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementOut
PHXKoby Brea · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
ORL·PHX
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
115.4
points / game
113.3
114.9
points allowed / game
112.0
29−25
season record
32−24
18−10
home record
18−10
11−15
away record
14−14
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
46.4
FG%
46.0
34.1
3P%
36.1
43.2
rebounds / game
43.1
26.4
assists / game
24.9
13.8
turnovers / game
14.9
51.4
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

ORL · PHX · 109 days
Orlando MagicPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHX 4−4
Dec 8, 2024at ORLORL 115 − 110
Nov 18, 2024at PHXORL 109 − 99
Jan 28, 2024at ORLORL 113 − 98
Dec 31, 2023at PHXPHX 112 − 107
Mar 16, 2023at PHXPHX 116 − 113
Nov 11, 2022at ORLORL 114 − 97
Mar 8, 2022at ORLPHX 102 − 99
Feb 12, 2022at PHXPHX 132 − 105

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 19at SAC131 − 94W
Feb 11vs MIL108 − 116L
Feb 9vs MIL118 − 99W
Feb 7vs UTAH120 − 117W
Feb 5vs BKN118 − 98W
Feb 3at OKC92 − 128L
Feb 1at SA103 − 112L
Jan 30vs TOR130 − 120W
Jan 28at MIA133 − 124W
Jan 26at CLE98 − 114L

PHX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Feb 19at SA94 − 121L
Feb 11vs OKC109 − 136L
Feb 10vs DAL120 − 111W
Feb 7vs PHI103 − 109L
Feb 5vs GS97 − 101L
Feb 3at POR130 − 125W
Feb 1vs LAC93 − 117L
Jan 30vs CLE126 − 113W
Jan 29vs DET114 − 96W
Jan 27vs BKN106 − 102W