bayesRatings

Pelicans at Lakers

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 3 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final NO 101 – LAL 110
← NBA / Mar 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO33182723101
LAL31232234110
Team box
NO·LAL
38-90
field goals
39-83
8-29
3-pointers
11-37
17-19
free throws
21-26
41
rebounds
48
29
assists
29
19
turnovers
22
60
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL3827107
Zion WilliamsonNO332440
LeBron JamesLAL332177
Trey Murphy IIINO332184
Saddiq BeyNO361853
Dejounte MurrayNO281588

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +10
NO +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 10 · NO 8lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 28%, LAL 72% · Updated Mar 3

Expected margin
LAL by 7.9
Expected score
LAL 120.6 – 112.7 NO
Expected total
233.3
PelicansThe matchupLakers
+262Our fair odds−262
112.7Expected points120.6
−0.63Power rating+0.17
115.1Points / game115.9
120.4Allowed / game115.5
46.4FG%49.9
34.33P%35.8
43.9Rebounds / game40.9
19−43Season record36−24
6−4Last 105−5
Hunter Dickinson · Trey AlexanderOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · LAL chance
Our model fair27.6%72.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+26228%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−26272%————
SpreadLAL by 7.9
NONew Orleans Pelicans+7.9our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−7.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.3
Over233.3our total————
Under233.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 7.9 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 49 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 50 points: <1%
← NO wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more61%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more46%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.3 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·LAL
Mar 1 at LAC
last game
Mar 1 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 3, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOZion Williamson · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALMaxi Kleber · back; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
NO·LAL
−0.63
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
115.1
points / game
115.9
120.4
points allowed / game
115.5
19−43
season record
36−24
11−21
home record
17−12
8−22
away record
19−12
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
46.4
FG%
49.9
34.3
3P%
35.8
43.9
rebounds / game
40.9
25.1
assists / game
25.4
14.3
turnovers / game
14.7
57.3
points in paint / game
51.5

Rating Trend

NO · LAL · 119 days
New Orleans PelicansLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 9−1
Jan 6at NOLAL 111 − 103
Nov 30, 2025at LALLAL 133 − 121
Nov 14, 2025at NOLAL 118 − 104
Apr 4, 2025at LALLAL 124 − 108
Mar 4, 2025at LALLAL 136 − 115
Nov 16, 2024at NOLAL 104 − 99
Apr 14, 2024at NOLAL 124 − 108
Feb 9, 2024at LALLAL 139 − 122
Dec 31, 2023at NONO 129 − 109
Dec 7, 2023at LALLAL 133 − 89

NO · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 1at LAC117 − 137L
Feb 28at UTAH115 − 105W
Feb 26at UTAH129 − 118W
Feb 24vs GS113 − 109W
Feb 21vs PHI126 − 111W
Feb 20vs MIL118 − 139L
Feb 11vs MIA111 − 123L
Feb 9vs SAC120 − 94W
Feb 6at MIN119 − 115W
Feb 4at MIL137 − 141L

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 1vs SAC128 − 104W
Feb 28at GS129 − 101W
Feb 26at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 24vs ORL109 − 110L
Feb 22vs BOS89 − 111L
Feb 20vs LAC125 − 122W
Feb 12vs DAL124 − 104W
Feb 10vs SA108 − 136L
Feb 9vs OKC110 − 119L
Feb 7vs GS105 − 99W