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Pelicans at Jazz

NBA · Saturday, Feb 28 · 8:30 PM CT · Delta Center · Final NO 115 – UTAH 105
← NBA / Feb 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO27382426115
UTAH22183332105
Team box
NO·UTAH
39-85
field goals
33-96
15-44
3-pointers
12-43
22-29
free throws
27-33
58
rebounds
40
32
assists
24
19
turnovers
7
46
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Saddiq BeyNO392456
Isaiah CollierUTAH332137
Jeremiah FearsNO3418115
Bryce McGowensNO331842
Herbert JonesNO361787
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH231724

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +27
NO +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 0 · NO 27lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 50%, UTAH 50% · Updated Feb 28

Expected margin
NO by 0.9
Expected score
NO 123.0 – 122.1 UTAH
Expected total
245.2
PelicansThe matchupJazz
+100Our fair odds−100
123.0Expected points122.1
−0.67Power rating−0.85
115.0Points / game118.0
120.3Allowed / game125.9
46.4FG%46.9
34.33P%34.7
43.7Rebounds / game44.1
18−42Season record18−41
5−5Last 103−7
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey Alexander · Trey Murphy IIIOutJaren Jackson Jr. · Jusuf Nurkic
Lauri Markkanen · Vince Williams Jr.
Walker Kessler

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+10050%————
UTAHUtah Jazz−10050%————
SpreadNO by 0.9
NONew Orleans Pelicans−0.9our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 245.2
Over245.2our total————
Under245.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Pelicans by 0.9 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%
← NO wins byUTAH wins by →
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 5 or more42%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 10 or more29%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

245.2 expected
194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 2%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%309 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 235.566%
Total over 245.548%
Total over 255.530%
Total from 236 to 25536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GBryce McGowensstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
CDeAndre Jordanstarted
Utah Jazz
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
FBlake Hinsonstarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·UTAH
Feb 26 at UTAH
last game
Feb 26 vs NO
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 28, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · return to competition reconditioningOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right shoulder; contusionOut
Utah Jazz
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHVince Williams Jr. · left knee; injury managementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
NO·UTAH
−0.67
rating (0 = average)
−0.85
115.0
points / game
118.0
120.3
points allowed / game
125.9
18−42
season record
18−41
11−21
home record
11−19
7−21
away record
7−22
W3
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
3−7
46.4
FG%
46.9
34.3
3P%
34.7
43.7
rebounds / game
44.1
25.1
assists / game
29.9
14.2
turnovers / game
16.0
57.6
points in paint / game
52.3

Rating Trend

NO · UTAH · 116 days
New Orleans PelicansUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 4−6
Feb 26at UTAHNO 129 − 118
Mar 2, 2025at UTAHNO 128 − 121
Jan 20, 2025at NONO 123 − 119
Jan 17, 2025at NONO 136 − 123
Jan 23, 2024at NONO 153 − 124
Dec 28, 2023at NONO 112 − 105
Nov 27, 2023at UTAHUTAH 114 − 112
Nov 25, 2023at UTAHUTAH 105 − 100
Dec 15, 2022at UTAHUTAH 132 − 129
Dec 13, 2022at UTAHUTAH 121 − 100

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Feb 26at UTAH129 − 118W
Feb 24vs GS113 − 109W
Feb 21vs PHI126 − 111W
Feb 20vs MIL118 − 139L
Feb 11vs MIA111 − 123L
Feb 9vs SAC120 − 94W
Feb 6at MIN119 − 115W
Feb 4at MIL137 − 141L
Feb 2at CHA95 − 102L
Jan 31at PHI114 − 124L

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Feb 26vs NO118 − 129L
Feb 23at HOU105 − 125L
Feb 20at MEM114 − 123L
Feb 12vs POR119 − 135L
Feb 11vs SAC121 − 93W
Feb 9at MIA115 − 111W
Feb 7at ORL117 − 120L
Feb 5at ATL119 − 121L
Feb 3at IND131 − 122W
Feb 1at TOR100 − 107L