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Timberwolves at Nuggets

NBA · Sunday, Mar 1 · 2:30 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final MIN 117 – DEN 108
← NBA / Mar 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN22363227117
DEN31193226108
Team box
MIN·DEN
46-85
field goals
41-85
14-36
3-pointers
6-22
11-19
free throws
20-27
41
rebounds
44
33
assists
21
14
turnovers
14
52
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN3735139
Jamal MurrayDEN392554
Anthony EdwardsMIN392136
Jaden McDanielsMIN332013
Bones HylandMIN161822
Donte DiVincenzoMIN361735

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +14
MIN +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 11 · MIN 14lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 47%, DEN 53% · Updated Mar 1

Expected margin
MIN by 0.4
Expected score
MIN 118.1 – 117.7 DEN
Expected total
235.8
TimberwolvesThe matchupNuggets
+113Our fair odds−113
118.1Expected points117.7
+0.44Power rating+0.39
119.2Points / game120.5
114.7Allowed / game115.9
48.4FG%49.4
37.53P%39.2
44.7Rebounds / game43.4
37−23Season record37−23
6−4Last 104−6
Enrique Freeman · Rocco ZikarskyOutAaron Gordon · Curtis Jones
Peyton Watson · Spencer Jones
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DEN chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+11347%————
DENDenver Nuggets−11353%————
SpreadMIN by 0.4
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−0.4our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.8
Over235.8our total————
Under235.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 0.4 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%
← MIN wins byDEN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more41%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more27%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.8 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.569%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DEN
Feb 26 at LAC
last game
Feb 27 at OKC
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 1, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENSpencer Jones · right shoulder; strainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
MIN·DEN
+0.44
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
119.2
points / game
120.5
114.7
points allowed / game
115.9
37−23
season record
37−23
20−11
home record
16−11
17−12
away record
21−12
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
48.4
FG%
49.4
37.5
3P%
39.2
44.7
rebounds / game
43.4
26.4
assists / game
28.1
14.6
turnovers / game
13.0
50.2
points in paint / game
48.7

Rating Trend

MIN · DEN · 117 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 4−6
Dec 25, 2025at DENDEN 142 − 138
Nov 15, 2025at MINDEN 123 − 112
Oct 27, 2025at MINDEN 127 − 114
Apr 1, 2025at DENMIN 140 − 139
Mar 12, 2025at DENMIN 115 − 95
Jan 25, 2025at MINMIN 133 − 104
Nov 1, 2024at MINMIN 119 − 116
May 19, 2024at DENMIN 98 − 90post
May 16, 2024at MINMIN 115 − 70post
May 14, 2024at DENDEN 112 − 97post

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Feb 26at LAC94 − 88W
Feb 24at POR124 − 121W
Feb 22vs PHI108 − 135L
Feb 20vs DAL122 − 111W
Feb 11vs POR133 − 109W
Feb 9vs ATL138 − 116W
Feb 8vs LAC96 − 115L
Feb 6vs NO115 − 119L
Feb 4at TOR128 − 126W
Feb 2at MEM128 − 137L

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 27at OKC121 − 127L
Feb 25vs BOS103 − 84W
Feb 22at GS117 − 128L
Feb 20at POR157 − 103W
Feb 19at LAC114 − 115L
Feb 11vs MEM122 − 116W
Feb 9vs CLE117 − 119L
Feb 7at CHI136 − 120W
Feb 4at NY127 − 134L
Feb 3at DET121 − 124L