bayesRatings

76ers at Timberwolves

NBA · Sunday, Feb 22 · 6:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final PHI 135 – MIN 108
← NBA / Feb 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI35332641135
MIN26322030108
Team box
PHI·MIN
50-97
field goals
34-71
21-37
3-pointers
10-33
14-21
free throws
30-36
39
rebounds
39
31
assists
22
11
turnovers
21
48
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI353938
Anthony EdwardsMIN342893
VJ EdgecombePHI372471
Quentin GrimesPHI281937
Jaden McDanielsMIN341962
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI351852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +29
PHI +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 7 · PHI 29lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 30%, MIN 70% · Updated Feb 22

Expected margin
MIN by 8.0
Expected score
MIN 118.6 – 110.6 PHI
Expected total
229.2
76ersThe matchupTimberwolves
+228Our fair odds−228
110.6Expected points118.6
−0.16Power rating+0.48
115.9Points / game119.7
116.1Allowed / game114.7
45.8FG%48.4
34.93P%37.6
43.4Rebounds / game45.0
30−26Season record35−22
5−5Last 107−3
Joel Embiid · Johni Broome
MarJon Beauchamp · Paul GeorgeOutEnrique Freeman · Rudy Gobert

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIN chance
Our model fair30.5%69.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+22830%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−22870%————
SpreadMIN by 8.0
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+8our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−8our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.2
Over229.2our total————
Under229.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 8.0 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%
← PHI wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more61%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more46%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

229.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
FJoan Beringerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIN
Feb 21 at NO
last game
Feb 20 vs DAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 22, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right knee; injury management; right shin sorenessOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; meniscus tearOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRudy Gobert · league suspensionOut
MINNaz Reid · right shoulder; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
PHI·MIN
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
115.9
points / game
119.7
116.1
points allowed / game
114.7
30−26
season record
35−22
15−15
home record
20−10
15−11
away record
15−12
L4
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
45.8
FG%
48.4
34.9
3P%
37.6
43.4
rebounds / game
45.0
24.5
assists / game
26.5
13.9
turnovers / game
14.5
48.0
points in paint / game
50.5

Rating Trend

PHI · MIN · 110 days
Philadelphia 76ersMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIN 5−3
Apr 5, 2025at PHIMIN 114 − 109
Mar 4, 2025at MINMIN 126 − 112
Dec 20, 2023at PHIPHI 127 − 113
Nov 22, 2023at MINMIN 112 − 99
Mar 7, 2023at MINPHI 117 − 94
Nov 19, 2022at PHIMIN 112 − 109
Feb 25, 2022at MINPHI 133 − 102
Nov 27, 2021at PHIMIN 121 − 120

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Feb 21at NO111 − 126L
Feb 19vs ATL107 − 117L
Feb 11vs NY89 − 138L
Feb 9at POR118 − 135L
Feb 7at PHX109 − 103W
Feb 5at LAL115 − 119L
Feb 3at GS113 − 94W
Feb 2at LAC128 − 113W
Jan 31vs NO124 − 114W
Jan 29vs SAC113 − 111W

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Feb 20vs DAL122 − 111W
Feb 11vs POR133 − 109W
Feb 9vs ATL138 − 116W
Feb 8vs LAC96 − 115L
Feb 6vs NO115 − 119L
Feb 4at TOR128 − 126W
Feb 2at MEM128 − 137L
Jan 31at MEM131 − 114W
Jan 29vs OKC123 − 111W
Jan 28at DAL118 − 105W