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Warriors at Thunder

NBA · Saturday, Mar 7 · 7:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final GS 97 – OKC 104
← NBA / Mar 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS2826291497
OKC34331918104
Team box
GS·OKC
36-88
field goals
33-78
14-45
3-pointers
15-42
11-18
free throws
23-24
47
rebounds
42
28
assists
24
13
turnovers
14
42
points in paint
28
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC352755
Gui SantosGS3722113
Isaiah JoeOKC351843
Brandin PodziemskiGS391766
Draymond GreenGS331645
Kenrich WilliamsOKC191371

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +14
GS +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 14 · GS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 24%, OKC 76% · Updated Mar 7

Expected margin
OKC by 9.8
Expected score
OKC 116.7 – 106.9 GS
Expected total
223.6
WarriorsThe matchupThunder
+310Our fair odds−310
106.9Expected points116.7
+0.17Power rating+1.14
115.3Points / game118.9
114.1Allowed / game107.8
46.1FG%48.3
35.83P%36.1
42.9Rebounds / game44.0
32−30Season record49−15
4−6Last 108−2
De'Anthony Melton · Jimmy Butler III
Moses Moody · Seth Curry
Stephen CurryOut (5 each)Ajay Mitchell · Alex Caruso
Branden Carlson · Chet Holmgren
Isaiah Hartenstein

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · OKC chance
Our model fair24.4%75.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+31024%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−31076%————
SpreadOKC by 9.8
GSGolden State Warriors+9.8our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−9.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.6
Over223.6our total————
Under223.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 9.8 expected
Golden State Warriors by 52 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 51 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%
← GS wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more66%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more51%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.6 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GPat Spencerstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CAl Horfordstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GIsaiah Joestarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·OKC
Mar 5 at HOU
last game
Mar 4 at NY
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 7, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; injury managementOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illnessQuestionable
GSWill Richard · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
GSGary Payton II · left ankle; impingementProbable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strain/ left ankle sprainOut
OKCAlex Caruso · left hip; contusionOut
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCChet Holmgren · n/a; fluOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · left calf; contusionOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring;Out
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
GS·OKC
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+1.14
115.3
points / game
118.9
114.1
points allowed / game
107.8
32−30
season record
49−15
19−13
home record
25−7
13−17
away record
24−8
W1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
8−2
46.1
FG%
48.3
35.8
3P%
36.1
42.9
rebounds / game
44.0
29.2
assists / game
25.5
15.6
turnovers / game
12.7
44.2
points in paint / game
49.7

Rating Trend

GS · OKC · 123 days
Golden State WarriorsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 7−3
Jan 2at GSOKC 131 − 94
Dec 2, 2025at GSOKC 124 − 112
Nov 11, 2025at OKCOKC 126 − 102
Jan 29, 2025at GSGS 116 − 109
Nov 27, 2024at GSOKC 105 − 101
Nov 10, 2024at OKCGS 127 − 116
Dec 8, 2023at OKCOKC 138 − 136
Nov 18, 2023at GSOKC 130 − 123
Nov 16, 2023at GSOKC 128 − 109
Nov 3, 2023at OKCGS 141 − 139

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W
Feb 25at DET116 − 124L
Feb 24at TOR116 − 107W
Feb 22vs CLE121 − 113W
Feb 20vs BKN105 − 86W
Feb 12vs MIL93 − 110L
Feb 11at PHX136 − 109W