bayesRatings

Clippers at Warriors

NBA · Monday, Mar 2 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final LAC 114 – GS 101
← NBA / Mar 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC19233537114
GS31252322101
Team box
LAC·GS
42-85
field goals
36-93
9-31
3-pointers
17-48
21-23
free throws
12-17
52
rebounds
40
18
assists
26
14
turnovers
14
62
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kawhi LeonardLAC292384
Brandin PodziemskiGS372273
Nate WilliamsGS221822
Al HorfordGS271763
Bennedict MathurinLAC311770
Kris DunnLAC261677

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +17
LAC +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 17 · LAC 17lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 44%, GS 56% · Updated Mar 2

Expected margin
GS by 2.5
Expected score
GS 111.8 – 109.2 LAC
Expected total
221.0
ClippersThe matchupWarriors
+127Our fair odds−127
109.2Expected points111.8
+0.15Power rating+0.22
112.1Points / game115.6
112.3Allowed / game114.1
48.0FG%46.2
36.13P%35.8
40.7Rebounds / game42.9
28−31Season record31−29
5−5Last 104−6
Bradley Beal · John CollinsOutJimmy Butler III · Kristaps Porzingis
LJ Cryer · Seth Curry
Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · GS chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers+12744%————
GSGolden State Warriors−12756%————
SpreadGS by 2.5
LACLA Clippers+2.5our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.0
Over221.0our total————
Under221.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 2.5 expected
LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 25 points: <1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 15 points: 1%LA Clippers by 14 points: 1%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 8 points: 2%LA Clippers by 7 points: 2%LA Clippers by 6 points: 2%LA Clippers by 5 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%
← LAC wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more47%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more32%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.0 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.568%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GKris Dunnstarted
GKobe Sandersstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CAl Horfordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·GS
Mar 1 vs NO
last game
Feb 28 vs LAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 2, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACJohn Collins · neck; sorenessOut
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illnessOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSWill Richard · right ankle; sprainOut
GSGary Payton II · left ankle; impingementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
LAC·GS
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
112.1
points / game
115.6
112.3
points allowed / game
114.1
28−31
season record
31−29
15−13
home record
19−12
13−18
away record
12−17
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
48.0
FG%
46.2
36.1
3P%
35.8
40.7
rebounds / game
42.9
23.6
assists / game
29.2
14.7
turnovers / game
15.6
47.8
points in paint / game
44.1

Rating Trend

LAC · GS · 118 days
LA ClippersGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 2−8
Jan 5at LACLAC 103 − 102
Oct 28, 2025at GSGS 98 − 79
Apr 13, 2025at GSLAC 124 − 119
Dec 27, 2024at LACLAC 102 − 92
Nov 18, 2024at LACLAC 102 − 99
Oct 27, 2024at GSLAC 112 − 104
Feb 14, 2024at GSLAC 130 − 125
Dec 14, 2023at LACLAC 121 − 113
Dec 2, 2023at LACLAC 113 − 112
Nov 30, 2023at GSGS 120 − 114

LAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 1vs NO137 − 117W
Feb 26vs MIN88 − 94L
Feb 22vs ORL109 − 111L
Feb 20at LAL122 − 125L
Feb 19vs DEN115 − 114W
Feb 11at HOU105 − 102W
Feb 10at HOU95 − 102L
Feb 8at MIN115 − 96W
Feb 6at SAC114 − 111W
Feb 4vs CLE91 − 124L

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L