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Warriors at Rockets

NBA · Thursday, Mar 5 · 6:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final GS 115 – HOU 113
← NBA / Mar 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
GS3021302014115
HOU2027351912113
Team box
GS·HOU
45-94
field goals
44-96
14-38
3-pointers
14-34
11-15
free throws
11-15
47
rebounds
49
29
assists
26
19
turnovers
18
60
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Reed SheppardHOU373036
Brandin PodziemskiGS402691
Kevin DurantHOU412363
De'Anthony MeltonGS302362
Amen ThompsonHOU4418105
Alperen SengunHOU371777

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +11
GS +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: HOU 4 · GS 11lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 39%, HOU 61% · Updated Mar 5

Expected margin
HOU by 4.3
Expected score
HOU 112.7 – 108.4 GS
Expected total
221.1
WarriorsThe matchupRockets
+158Our fair odds−158
108.4Expected points112.7
+0.17Power rating+0.46
115.3Points / game114.7
114.1Allowed / game109.4
46.1FG%47.8
35.83P%37.2
42.8Rebounds / game48.4
31−30Season record38−22
4−6Last 107−3
Jimmy Butler III · Kristaps Porzingis
Moses Moody · Seth Curry
Stephen CurryOutFred VanVleet · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · HOU chance
Our model fair38.7%61.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+15839%————
HOUHouston Rockets−15861%————
SpreadHOU by 4.3
GSGolden State Warriors+4.3our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.1
Over221.1our total————
Under221.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 4.3 expected
Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%
← GS wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more52%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more37%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.1 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.568%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CAl Horfordstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·HOU
Mar 2 vs LAC
last game
Mar 2 at WSH
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 5, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illnessOut
GSMoses Moody · pain syndrome right wrist; sprainOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral;Out
GSWill Richard · right ankle; sprainOut
GSGary Payton II · left ankle; impingementQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · n/a; illnessQuestionable
HOUAmen Thompson · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
HOUJabari Smith Jr. · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
GS·HOU
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
115.3
points / game
114.7
114.1
points allowed / game
109.4
31−30
season record
38−22
19−13
home record
20−7
12−17
away record
18−15
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
46.1
FG%
47.8
35.8
3P%
37.2
42.8
rebounds / game
48.4
29.2
assists / game
24.8
15.6
turnovers / game
15.6
44.0
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

GS · HOU · 121 days
Golden State WarriorsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Nov 26, 2025at GSHOU 104 − 100
May 4, 2025at HOUGS 103 − 89post
May 2, 2025at GSHOU 115 − 107post
Apr 30, 2025at HOUHOU 131 − 116post
Apr 28, 2025at GSGS 109 − 106post
Apr 26, 2025at GSGS 104 − 93post
Apr 23, 2025at HOUHOU 109 − 94post
Apr 20, 2025at HOUGS 95 − 85post
Apr 6, 2025at GSHOU 106 − 96
Feb 13, 2025at HOUGS 105 − 98

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Mar 2at WSH123 − 118W
Feb 28at MIA105 − 115L
Feb 26at ORL113 − 108W
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W
Feb 11vs LAC102 − 105L
Feb 10vs LAC102 − 95W
Feb 7at OKC112 − 106W