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Rockets at Wizards

NBA · Monday, Mar 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final HOU 123 – WSH 118
← NBA / Mar 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU26343429123
WSH30212938118
Team box
HOU·WSH
45-92
field goals
44-91
9-25
3-pointers
19-35
24-28
free throws
11-14
59
rebounds
27
21
assists
20
21
turnovers
13
62
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU3832132
Kevin DurantHOU373071
Bilal CoulibalyWSH272310
Amen ThompsonHOU3122124
Sharife CooperWSH172123
Reed SheppardHOU4219710

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +19
HOU +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 5 · HOU 19lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 79%, WSH 21% · Updated Mar 2

Expected margin
HOU by 12.1
Expected score
HOU 120.1 – 108.0 WSH
Expected total
228.2
RocketsThe matchupWizards
−381Our fair odds+381
120.1Expected points108.0
+0.45Power rating−1.09
114.5Points / game112.2
109.2Allowed / game123.0
47.7FG%45.9
37.33P%35.1
48.2Rebounds / game43.3
37−22Season record16−43
6−4Last 103−7
Fred VanVleet · Jabari Smith Jr.
Jae'Sean Tate · Steven Adams
Tristen NewtonOut (5 each)Alex Sarr · Anthony Davis
Cam Whitmore · D'Angelo Russell
Leaky Black

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · WSH chance
Our model fair79.2%20.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−38179%————
WSHWashington Wizards+38121%————
SpreadHOU by 12.1
HOUHouston Rockets−12.1our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+12.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.2
Over228.2our total————
Under228.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 12.1 expected
Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 4%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 4%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%
← HOU wins byWSH wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more74%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more58%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more41%
Within 5 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FJulian Reesestarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·WSH
Feb 28 at MIA
last game
Feb 28 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 2, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJabari Smith Jr. · right ankle; sprainOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · right hamstring; strainOut
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHLeaky Black · left ankle; sprainOut
WSHTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprain; quad contusionOut
WSHTristan Vukcevic · left thigh; contusionOut
WSHAnthony Gill · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
HOU·WSH
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
−1.09
114.5
points / game
112.2
109.2
points allowed / game
123.0
37−22
season record
16−43
20−7
home record
11−20
17−15
away record
5−23
L1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
47.7
FG%
45.9
37.3
3P%
35.1
48.2
rebounds / game
43.3
24.8
assists / game
25.2
15.5
turnovers / game
15.5
51.7
points in paint / game
47.6

Rating Trend

HOU · WSH · 118 days
Houston RocketsWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 1−8
Nov 12, 2025at HOUHOU 135 − 112
Jan 7, 2025at WSHHOU 135 − 112
Nov 11, 2024at HOUHOU 107 − 92
Mar 19, 2024at WSHHOU 137 − 114
Mar 14, 2024at HOUHOU 135 − 119
Apr 9, 2023at WSHHOU 114 − 109
Jan 25, 2023at HOUWSH 108 − 103
Mar 21, 2022at HOUHOU 115 − 97
Jan 5, 2022at WSHHOU 114 − 111

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Feb 28at MIA105 − 115L
Feb 26at ORL113 − 108W
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W
Feb 11vs LAC102 − 105L
Feb 10vs LAC102 − 95W
Feb 7at OKC112 − 106W
Feb 5vs CHA99 − 109L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Feb 28vs TOR125 − 134L
Feb 26at ATL96 − 126L
Feb 24at ATL98 − 119L
Feb 22vs CHA112 − 129L
Feb 20vs IND131 − 118W
Feb 19vs IND112 − 105W
Feb 11at CLE113 − 138L
Feb 8vs MIA101 − 132L
Feb 7at BKN113 − 127L
Feb 5at DET126 − 117W