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Wizards at Hawks

NBA · Thursday, Feb 26 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final WSH 96 – ATL 126
← NBA / Feb 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH2630241696
ATL37392228126
Team box
WSH·ATL
36-94
field goals
42-91
9-33
3-pointers
13-39
15-16
free throws
29-37
44
rebounds
56
17
assists
30
14
turnovers
14
48
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Corey KispertATL283361
CJ McCollumATL262563
Jonathan KumingaATL301793
Will RileyWSH3614104
Tre JohnsonWSH201451
Justin ChampagnieWSH201421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +32
WSH +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 32 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 24%, ATL 76% · Updated Feb 26

Expected margin
ATL by 10.2
Expected score
ATL 124.5 – 114.3 WSH
Expected total
238.8
WizardsThe matchupHawks
+312Our fair odds−312
114.3Expected points124.5
−1.09Power rating−0.11
112.2Points / game117.0
122.8Allowed / game118.0
45.9FG%46.9
35.03P%36.6
43.4Rebounds / game42.9
16−41Season record29−31
4−6Last 105−5
Alex Sarr · Anthony Davis
Cam Whitmore · D'Angelo Russell
Kyshawn GeorgeOutCaleb Houstan · Jalen Johnson
RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair24.3%75.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Wizards+31224%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−31276%————
SpreadATL by 10.2
WSHWashington Wizards+10.2our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−10.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.8
Over238.8our total————
Under238.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 10.2 expected
Washington Wizards by 52 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 51 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 50 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 50 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 51 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 52 points: <1%
← WSH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more67%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more52%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.8 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GWill Rileystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FTristan Vukcevicstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATL
Feb 24 at ATL
last game
Feb 24 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 26, 5:00 PM ET
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · right hamstring; strainOut
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHKyshawn George · left knee; contusionOut
WSHTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprain; quad contusionOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJalen Johnson · left hip flexor; irritationOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker · left foot; sprainQuestionable
ATLZaccharie Risacher · right hip; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
WSH·ATL
−1.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
112.2
points / game
117.0
122.8
points allowed / game
118.0
16−41
season record
29−31
11−19
home record
12−16
5−22
away record
17−15
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
45.9
FG%
46.9
35.0
3P%
36.6
43.4
rebounds / game
42.9
25.4
assists / game
30.4
15.6
turnovers / game
14.3
47.5
points in paint / game
51.4

Rating Trend

WSH · ATL · 114 days
Washington WizardsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Feb 24at ATLATL 119 − 98
Dec 6, 2025at WSHATL 131 − 116
Nov 25, 2025at WSHWSH 132 − 113
Feb 8, 2025at WSHATL 125 − 111
Nov 15, 2024at ATLATL 129 − 117
Oct 30, 2024at WSHWSH 133 − 120
Oct 28, 2024at ATLWSH 121 − 119
Jan 13, 2024at ATLWSH 127 − 99
Dec 31, 2023at WSHATL 130 − 126
Nov 25, 2023at WSHATL 136 − 108

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Feb 24at ATL98 − 119L
Feb 22vs CHA112 − 129L
Feb 20vs IND131 − 118W
Feb 19vs IND112 − 105W
Feb 11at CLE113 − 138L
Feb 8vs MIA101 − 132L
Feb 7at BKN113 − 127L
Feb 5at DET126 − 117W
Feb 3vs NY101 − 132L
Feb 1vs SAC116 − 112W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Feb 24vs WSH119 − 98W
Feb 22vs BKN115 − 104W
Feb 20vs MIA97 − 128L
Feb 19at PHI117 − 107W
Feb 11at CHA107 − 110L
Feb 9at MIN116 − 138L
Feb 7vs CHA119 − 126L
Feb 5vs UTAH121 − 119W
Feb 3at MIA127 − 115W
Jan 31at IND124 − 129L