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Raptors at Wizards

NBA · Saturday, Feb 28 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final TOR 134 – WSH 125
← NBA / Feb 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR25363736134
WSH33312833125
Team box
TOR·WSH
51-85
field goals
47-88
9-22
3-pointers
16-34
23-27
free throws
15-21
35
rebounds
35
31
assists
23
10
turnovers
14
68
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Immanuel QuickleyTOR3727211
Brandon IngramTOR342455
RJ BarrettTOR332153
Will RileyWSH351943
Jakob PoeltlTOR2618103
Scottie BarnesTOR291844

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +17
TOR +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 13 · TOR 17lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 71%, WSH 29% · Updated Feb 28

Expected margin
TOR by 8.0
Expected score
TOR 119.0 – 111.0 WSH
Expected total
230.1
RaptorsThe matchupWizards
−249Our fair odds+249
119.0Expected points111.0
+0.01Power rating−1.09
113.6Points / game111.9
111.8Allowed / game122.8
47.1FG%45.8
34.63P%34.8
43.0Rebounds / game43.4
34−25Season record16−42
5−5Last 103−7
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jonathan MogboOutAlex Sarr · Anthony Davis
Cam Whitmore · D'Angelo Russell
Leaky Black

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · WSH chance
Our model fair71.3%28.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−24971%————
WSHWashington Wizards+24929%————
SpreadTOR by 8.0
TORToronto Raptors−8our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+8our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.1
Over230.1our total————
Under230.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 8.0 expected
Toronto Raptors by 49 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%
← TOR wins byWSH wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more63%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more46%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.1 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.548%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FTristan Vukcevicstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·WSH
Feb 25 vs SA
last game
Feb 26 at ATL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 28, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJonathan Mogbo · g league - on assignmentOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; sprainDoubtful
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · right hamstring; strainOut
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHLeaky Black · g league - two-wayOut
WSHTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprain; quad contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
TOR·WSH
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−1.09
113.6
points / game
111.9
111.8
points allowed / game
122.8
34−25
season record
16−42
16−15
home record
11−19
18−10
away record
5−23
L2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
3−7
47.1
FG%
45.8
34.6
3P%
34.8
43.0
rebounds / game
43.4
29.1
assists / game
25.3
13.9
turnovers / game
15.6
51.6
points in paint / game
47.5

Rating Trend

TOR · WSH · 116 days
Toronto RaptorsWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Dec 26, 2025at WSHWSH 138 − 117
Nov 21, 2025at TORTOR 140 − 110
Mar 24, 2025at WSHTOR 112 − 104
Mar 10, 2025at TORTOR 119 − 104
Mar 8, 2025at TORWSH 118 − 117
Jan 29, 2025at WSHTOR 106 − 82
Apr 7, 2024at TORTOR 130 − 122
Mar 23, 2024at WSHWSH 112 − 109
Dec 27, 2023at WSHTOR 132 − 102
Nov 13, 2023at TORTOR 111 − 107

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Feb 25vs SA107 − 110L
Feb 24vs OKC107 − 116L
Feb 22at MIL122 − 94W
Feb 19at CHI110 − 101W
Feb 11vs DET95 − 113L
Feb 8vs IND122 − 104W
Feb 5vs CHI123 − 107W
Feb 4vs MIN126 − 128L
Feb 1vs UTAH107 − 100W
Jan 30at ORL120 − 130L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Feb 26at ATL96 − 126L
Feb 24at ATL98 − 119L
Feb 22vs CHA112 − 129L
Feb 20vs IND131 − 118W
Feb 19vs IND112 − 105W
Feb 11at CLE113 − 138L
Feb 8vs MIA101 − 132L
Feb 7at BKN113 − 127L
Feb 5at DET126 − 117W
Feb 3vs NY101 − 132L