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Rockets at Magic

NBA · Thursday, Feb 26 · 6:30 PM CT · Kia Center · Final HOU 113 – ORL 108
← NBA / Feb 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU22213832113
ORL29242728108
Team box
HOU·ORL
43-82
field goals
40-88
11-29
3-pointers
15-37
16-20
free throws
13-21
41
rebounds
40
24
assists
25
13
turnovers
12
50
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU404083
Desmond BaneORL383064
Reed SheppardHOU312034
Paolo BancheroORL371989
Alperen SengunHOU311665
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL271661

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +19
HOU +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 19 · HOU 7lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 56%, ORL 44% · Updated Feb 26

Expected margin
HOU by 2.0
Expected score
HOU 109.6 – 107.6 ORL
Expected total
217.2
RocketsThe matchupMagic
−126Our fair odds+126
109.6Expected points107.6
+0.45Power rating+0.04
114.7Points / game115.1
109.1Allowed / game114.6
47.7FG%46.3
37.53P%33.8
48.4Rebounds / game43.5
36−21Season record31−26
6−4Last 106−4
Fred VanVleet · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams · Tristen NewtonOutAlex Morales · Colin Castleton
Franz Wagner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · ORL chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−12656%————
ORLOrlando Magic+12644%————
SpreadHOU by 2.0
HOUHouston Rockets−2our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 217.2
Over217.2our total————
Under217.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 2.0 expected
Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%
← HOU wins byORL wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more45%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more31%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

217.2 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 207.569%
Total over 217.549%
Total over 227.529%
Total from 208 to 22739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·ORL
Feb 25 vs SAC
last game
Feb 24 at LAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 26, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left ankle; high ankle sprain/injury managementOut
ORLJalen Suggs · back; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
HOU·ORL
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
114.7
points / game
115.1
109.1
points allowed / game
114.6
36−21
season record
31−26
20−7
home record
18−10
16−14
away record
13−16
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.7
FG%
46.3
37.5
3P%
33.8
48.4
rebounds / game
43.5
24.8
assists / game
26.4
15.6
turnovers / game
13.8
51.8
points in paint / game
51.8

Rating Trend

HOU · ORL · 114 days
Houston RocketsOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ORL 3−6
Nov 16, 2025at HOUHOU 117 − 113
Mar 19, 2025at ORLHOU 116 − 108
Mar 10, 2025at HOUHOU 97 − 84
Apr 9, 2024at HOUHOU 118 − 106
Oct 25, 2023at ORLORL 116 − 86
Dec 21, 2022at HOUORL 116 − 110
Nov 7, 2022at ORLHOU 134 − 127
Feb 25, 2022at ORLORL 119 − 111
Dec 3, 2021at HOUHOU 118 − 116

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W
Feb 11vs LAC102 − 105L
Feb 10vs LAC102 − 95W
Feb 7at OKC112 − 106W
Feb 5vs CHA99 − 109L
Feb 4vs BOS93 − 114L
Feb 2at IND118 − 114W

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Feb 24at LAL110 − 109W
Feb 22at LAC111 − 109W
Feb 21at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 19at SAC131 − 94W
Feb 11vs MIL108 − 116L
Feb 9vs MIL118 − 99W
Feb 7vs UTAH120 − 117W
Feb 5vs BKN118 − 98W
Feb 3at OKC92 − 128L
Feb 1at SA103 − 112L