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Rockets at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Feb 28 · 2:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final HOU 105 – MIA 115
← NBA / Feb 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU28243122105
MIA32193430115
Team box
HOU·MIA
41-95
field goals
45-90
9-36
3-pointers
11-31
14-21
free throws
14-20
47
rebounds
47
26
assists
22
11
turnovers
14
50
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU373258
Bam AdebayoMIA3524111
Amen ThompsonHOU3920114
Pelle LarssonMIA352044
Tyler HerroMIA331823
Reed SheppardHOU361445

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +13
HOU +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 13 · HOU 10lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 53%, MIA 47% · Updated Feb 28

Expected margin
HOU by 0.9
Expected score
HOU 112.8 – 111.8 MIA
Expected total
224.6
RocketsThe matchupHeat
−115Our fair odds+115
112.8Expected points111.8
+0.45Power rating+0.13
114.7Points / game119.9
109.1Allowed / game117.2
47.8FG%46.3
37.53P%35.8
48.3Rebounds / game47.2
37−21Season record31−29
6−4Last 105−5
Fred VanVleet · Jabari Smith Jr.
Jae'Sean Tate · Steven Adams
Tristen NewtonOutNikola Jovic · Norman Powell
Terry Rozier

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · MIA chance
Our model fair53.5%46.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−11553%————
MIAMiami Heat+11547%————
SpreadHOU by 0.9
HOUHouston Rockets−0.9our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.6
Over224.6our total————
Under224.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 0.9 expected
Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%
← HOU wins byMIA wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more42%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more29%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

224.6 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·MIA
Feb 26 at ORL
last game
Feb 26 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 27, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJabari Smith Jr. · right ankle; sprainOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Miami Heat
MIANikola Jovic · lower back; injury managementOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
HOU·MIA
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
114.7
points / game
119.9
109.1
points allowed / game
117.2
37−21
season record
31−29
20−7
home record
17−11
17−14
away record
14−18
W3
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
47.8
FG%
46.3
37.5
3P%
35.8
48.3
rebounds / game
47.2
24.8
assists / game
28.7
15.5
turnovers / game
14.2
51.8
points in paint / game
54.1

Rating Trend

HOU · MIA · 116 days
Houston RocketsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 7−1
Mar 21, 2025at MIAHOU 102 − 98
Dec 29, 2024at HOUMIA 104 − 100
Apr 5, 2024at HOUMIA 119 − 104
Jan 8, 2024at MIAMIA 120 − 113
Feb 10, 2023at MIAMIA 97 − 95
Dec 15, 2022at HOUMIA 111 − 108
Mar 7, 2022at MIAMIA 123 − 106
Dec 31, 2021at HOUMIA 120 − 110

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Feb 26at ORL113 − 108W
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W
Feb 11vs LAC102 − 105L
Feb 10vs LAC102 − 95W
Feb 7at OKC112 − 106W
Feb 5vs CHA99 − 109L
Feb 4vs BOS93 − 114L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Feb 26at PHI117 − 124L
Feb 24at MIL117 − 128L
Feb 21vs MEM136 − 120W
Feb 20at ATL128 − 97W
Feb 11at NO123 − 111W
Feb 9vs UTAH111 − 115L
Feb 8at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 6at BOS96 − 98L
Feb 3vs ATL115 − 127L
Feb 1vs CHI134 − 91W