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Heat at 76ers

NBA · Thursday, Feb 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final MIA 117 – PHI 124
← NBA / Feb 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA35223426117
PHI36372625124
Team box
MIA·PHI
40-87
field goals
45-94
17-40
3-pointers
17-43
20-26
free throws
17-18
45
rebounds
49
25
assists
26
14
turnovers
14
36
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA3629143
Tyrese MaxeyPHI3828411
Joel EmbiidPHI3126114
Tyler HerroMIA322547
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI342183
VJ EdgecombePHI391984

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +16
MIA +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 16 · MIA 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 53%, PHI 47% · Updated Feb 26

Expected margin
MIA by 2.0
Expected score
MIA 117.2 – 115.2 PHI
Expected total
232.4
HeatThe matchup76ers
−112Our fair odds+112
117.2Expected points115.2
+0.13Power rating−0.16
120.0Points / game116.6
117.1Allowed / game115.9
46.3FG%46.1
35.73P%35.2
47.3Rebounds / game43.3
31−28Season record32−26
5−5Last 105−5
Nikola Jovic · Terry RozierOutJohni Broome · MarJon Beauchamp
Paul George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · PHI chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−11253%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+11247%————
SpreadMIA by 2.0
MIAMiami Heat−2our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.4
Over232.4our total————
Under232.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 2.0 expected
Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%
← MIA wins byPHI wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more45%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more31%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.4 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·PHI
Feb 24 at MIL
last game
Feb 24 at IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 26, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIANikola Jovic · lower back; injury managementOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIADavion Mitchell · head; illnessQuestionable
MIANorman Powell · right groin; sorenessQuestionable
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; meniscus tearOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right knee; injury management/right shin sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
MIA·PHI
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
120.0
points / game
116.6
117.1
points allowed / game
115.9
31−28
season record
32−26
17−11
home record
15−15
14−17
away record
17−11
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
46.3
FG%
46.1
35.7
3P%
35.2
47.3
rebounds / game
43.3
28.8
assists / game
24.7
14.2
turnovers / game
13.8
54.4
points in paint / game
48.6

Rating Trend

MIA · PHI · 114 days
Miami HeatPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 2−8
Nov 23, 2025at PHIMIA 127 − 117
Apr 7, 2025at MIAMIA 117 − 105
Mar 29, 2025at PHIMIA 118 − 95
Feb 5, 2025at PHIMIA 108 − 101
Nov 18, 2024at MIAMIA 106 − 89
Apr 4, 2024at MIAPHI 109 − 105
Mar 18, 2024at PHIPHI 98 − 91
Feb 14, 2024at PHIMIA 109 − 104
Dec 25, 2023at MIAMIA 119 − 113
Apr 6, 2023at PHIMIA 129 − 101

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Feb 24at MIL117 − 128L
Feb 21vs MEM136 − 120W
Feb 20at ATL128 − 97W
Feb 11at NO123 − 111W
Feb 9vs UTAH111 − 115L
Feb 8at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 6at BOS96 − 98L
Feb 3vs ATL115 − 127L
Feb 1vs CHI134 − 91W
Jan 31vs CHI118 − 125L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Feb 24at IND135 − 114W
Feb 22at MIN135 − 108W
Feb 21at NO111 − 126L
Feb 19vs ATL107 − 117L
Feb 11vs NY89 − 138L
Feb 9at POR118 − 135L
Feb 7at PHX109 − 103W
Feb 5at LAL115 − 119L
Feb 3at GS113 − 94W
Feb 2at LAC128 − 113W