bayesRatings

76ers at Pacers

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 24 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final PHI 135 – IND 114
← NBA / Feb 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI30453129135
IND38272029114
Team box
PHI·IND
53-92
field goals
41-95
8-29
3-pointers
13-43
21-25
free throws
19-22
44
rebounds
41
29
assists
27
13
turnovers
18
82
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI343298
Joel EmbiidPHI262765
VJ EdgecombePHI302374
Micah PotterIND232333
Andrew NembhardIND282313
Quentin GrimesPHI271522

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +28
PHI +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 8 · PHI 28lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 49%, IND 51% · Updated Feb 24

Expected margin
IND by 0.1
Expected score
IND 116.0 – 115.9 PHI
Expected total
231.9
76ersThe matchupPacers
+104Our fair odds−104
115.9Expected points116.0
−0.16Power rating−0.29
116.2Points / game111.5
116.0Allowed / game119.0
45.9FG%45.0
35.33P%35.2
43.3Rebounds / game42.7
31−26Season record15−43
5−5Last 103−7
Johni Broome · MarJon Beauchamp
Paul GeorgeOutAaron Nesmith · Ivica Zubac
Johnny Furphy · Obi Toppin
Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · IND chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+10449%————
INDIndiana Pacers−10451%————
SpreadIND by 0.1
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+0.1our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.9
Over231.9our total————
Under231.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 0.1 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%
← PHI wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more41%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more27%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.9 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.531%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
GKam Jonesstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·IND
Feb 22 at MIN
last game
Feb 22 vs DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 24, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; meniscus tearOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right knee; injury management; right shin sorenessQuestionable
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; sprainOut
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · left wrist; sprainDoubtful
INDAndrew Nembhard · lower back; injury managementQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDQuenton Jackson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessQuestionable
and 3 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
PHI·IND
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
116.2
points / game
111.5
116.0
points allowed / game
119.0
31−26
season record
15−43
15−15
home record
10−19
16−11
away record
5−24
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
3−7
45.9
FG%
45.0
35.3
3P%
35.2
43.3
rebounds / game
42.7
24.6
assists / game
26.3
13.8
turnovers / game
14.5
48.0
points in paint / game
45.2

Rating Trend

PHI · IND · 112 days
Philadelphia 76ersIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 5−5
Jan 19at PHIPHI 113 − 104
Dec 12, 2025at PHIPHI 115 − 105
Mar 14, 2025at PHIIND 112 − 100
Jan 18, 2025at INDIND 115 − 102
Dec 13, 2024at PHIIND 121 − 107
Oct 27, 2024at INDPHI 118 − 114
Jan 25, 2024at INDIND 134 − 122
Nov 14, 2023at PHIIND 132 − 126
Nov 12, 2023at PHIPHI 137 − 126
Mar 18, 2023at INDPHI 141 − 121

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 22at MIN135 − 108W
Feb 21at NO111 − 126L
Feb 19vs ATL107 − 117L
Feb 11vs NY89 − 138L
Feb 9at POR118 − 135L
Feb 7at PHX109 − 103W
Feb 5at LAL115 − 119L
Feb 3at GS113 − 94W
Feb 2at LAC128 − 113W
Jan 31vs NO124 − 114W

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Feb 22vs DAL130 − 134L
Feb 20at WSH118 − 131L
Feb 19at WSH105 − 112L
Feb 11at BKN115 − 110W
Feb 10at NY137 − 134W
Feb 8at TOR104 − 122L
Feb 6at MIL99 − 105L
Feb 3vs UTAH122 − 131L
Feb 2vs HOU114 − 118L
Jan 31vs ATL129 − 124W