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Knicks at Nuggets

NBA · Friday, Mar 6 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final NY 142 – DEN 103
← NBA / Mar 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY27384037142
DEN29232823103
Team box
NY·DEN
55-95
field goals
37-83
16-34
3-pointers
8-40
16-21
free throws
21-30
50
rebounds
31
44
assists
30
11
turnovers
15
76
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN313885
OG AnunobyNY323475
Josh HartNY251852
Karl-Anthony TownsNY2717132
Mitchell RobinsonNY141351
Jamal MurrayDEN181213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +42
NY +42
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 9 · NY 42lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 49%, DEN 51% · Updated Mar 6

Expected margin
NY by 0.7
Expected score
NY 116.2 – 115.6 DEN
Expected total
231.8
KnicksThe matchupNuggets
+104Our fair odds−104
116.2Expected points115.6
+0.53Power rating+0.40
117.0Points / game120.4
110.8Allowed / game116.0
47.1FG%49.4
37.43P%39.2
46.2Rebounds / game43.2
41−23Season record39−24
6−4Last 105−5
Dillon Jones · Miles McBrideOutCurtis Jones · KJ Simpson
Peyton Watson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · DEN chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks+10449%————
DENDenver Nuggets−10451%————
SpreadNY by 0.7
NYNew York Knicks−0.7our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.8
Over231.8our total————
Under231.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 0.7 expected
New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 29 points: <1%New York Knicks by 28 points: <1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 17 points: 1%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 2%New York Knicks by 10 points: 2%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%
← NY wins byDEN wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more42%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more28%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.8 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·DEN
Mar 4 vs OKC
last game
Mar 5 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 6, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYDillon Jones · g league - two-wayOut
NYMiles McBride · pelvic; core muscle surgeryOut
NYJosh Hart · lower back; lower back contusionQuestionable
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainQuestionable
DENCameron Johnson · right ankle; inflammationQuestionable
DENSpencer Jones · right shoulder; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
NY·DEN
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
117.0
points / game
120.4
110.8
points allowed / game
116.0
41−23
season record
39−24
24−9
home record
17−12
17−14
away record
22−12
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
47.1
FG%
49.4
37.4
3P%
39.2
46.2
rebounds / game
43.2
27.1
assists / game
28.0
13.6
turnovers / game
13.1
46.9
points in paint / game
48.7

Rating Trend

NY · DEN · 122 days
New York KnicksDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DEN 3−6
Feb 4at NYNY 134 − 127
Jan 29, 2025at NYNY 122 − 112
Nov 25, 2024at DENNY 145 − 118
Mar 21, 2024at DENDEN 113 − 100
Jan 25, 2024at NYNY 122 − 84
Mar 18, 2023at NYNY 116 − 110
Nov 16, 2022at DENNY 106 − 103
Feb 8, 2022at DENDEN 132 − 115
Dec 4, 2021at NYDEN 113 − 99

NY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 4vs OKC100 − 103L
Mar 3at TOR111 − 95W
Mar 1vs SA114 − 89W
Feb 27at MIL127 − 98W
Feb 24at CLE94 − 109L
Feb 22at CHI105 − 99W
Feb 21vs HOU108 − 106W
Feb 19vs DET111 − 126L
Feb 11at PHI138 − 89W
Feb 10vs IND134 − 137L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 5vs LAL120 − 113W
Mar 2at UTAH128 − 125W
Mar 1vs MIN108 − 117L
Feb 27at OKC121 − 127L
Feb 25vs BOS103 − 84W
Feb 22at GS117 − 128L
Feb 20at POR157 − 103W
Feb 19at LAC114 − 115L
Feb 11vs MEM122 − 116W
Feb 9vs CLE117 − 119L