bayesRatings

Rockets at Nuggets

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 11 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final HOU 93 – DEN 129
← NBA / Mar 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU2027222493
DEN24294036129
Team box
HOU·DEN
42-97
field goals
48-87
4-33
3-pointers
17-32
5-14
free throws
16-22
44
rebounds
42
25
assists
36
16
turnovers
10
70
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN313024
Christian BraunDEN261943
Cameron JohnsonDEN251724
Nikola JokicDEN30161213
Amen ThompsonHOU301654
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN211431

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +39
HOU +39
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 39 · HOU 5lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 47%, DEN 53% · Updated Mar 11

Expected margin
HOU by 0.1
Expected score
HOU 114.9 – 114.8 DEN
Expected total
229.7
RocketsThe matchupNuggets
+113Our fair odds−113
114.9Expected points114.8
+0.43Power rating+0.37
114.6Points / game120.3
109.7Allowed / game116.6
47.9FG%49.3
37.13P%38.9
48.2Rebounds / game43.2
40−24Season record39−26
6−4Last 104−6
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Jae'Sean Tate · Steven Adams
Tristen NewtonOutCurtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
KJ Simpson · Peyton Watson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · DEN chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+11347%————
DENDenver Nuggets−11353%————
SpreadHOU by 0.1
HOUHouston Rockets−0.1our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.7
Over229.7our total————
Under229.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 0.1 expected
Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%
← HOU wins byDEN wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more40%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more27%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

229.7 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·DEN
Mar 10 vs TOR
last game
Mar 9 at OKC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 11, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; injury managementOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · back; spasmsProbable
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
HOU·DEN
+0.43
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
114.6
points / game
120.3
109.7
points allowed / game
116.6
40−24
season record
39−26
22−8
home record
17−13
18−16
away record
22−13
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
47.9
FG%
49.3
37.1
3P%
38.9
48.2
rebounds / game
43.2
24.7
assists / game
28.0
15.7
turnovers / game
13.0
52.1
points in paint / game
48.7

Rating Trend

HOU · DEN · 127 days
Houston RocketsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 5−5
Dec 20, 2025at DENHOU 115 − 101
Dec 15, 2025at DENDEN 128 − 125
Nov 21, 2025at HOUDEN 112 − 109
Apr 13, 2025at HOUDEN 126 − 111
Mar 23, 2025at HOUDEN 116 − 111
Jan 15, 2025at DENHOU 128 − 108
Dec 8, 2023at DENHOU 114 − 106
Nov 29, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 124
Nov 24, 2023at HOUHOU 105 − 86
Nov 12, 2023at HOUHOU 107 − 104

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 10vs TOR113 − 99W
Mar 8at SA120 − 145L
Mar 6vs POR106 − 99W
Mar 5vs GS113 − 115L
Mar 2at WSH123 − 118W
Feb 28at MIA105 − 115L
Feb 26at ORL113 − 108W
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 9at OKC126 − 129L
Mar 6vs NY103 − 142L
Mar 5vs LAL120 − 113W
Mar 2at UTAH128 − 125W
Mar 1vs MIN108 − 117L
Feb 27at OKC121 − 127L
Feb 25vs BOS103 − 84W
Feb 22at GS117 − 128L
Feb 20at POR157 − 103W
Feb 19at LAC114 − 115L