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Rockets at Spurs

NBA · Sunday, Mar 8 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final HOU 120 – SA 145
← NBA / Mar 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU33243726120
SA32374135145
Team box
HOU·SA
42-87
field goals
51-88
8-28
3-pointers
21-40
28-32
free throws
22-27
37
rebounds
32
25
assists
38
12
turnovers
8
58
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA302981
Amen ThompsonHOU362376
Kevin DurantHOU332354
Stephon CastleSA262335
De'Aaron FoxSA3220210
Keldon JohnsonSA262012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +30
HOU +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 30 · HOU 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 47%, SA 53% · Updated Mar 8

Expected margin
SA by 0.3
Expected score
SA 112.2 – 111.9 HOU
Expected total
224.2
RocketsThe matchupSpurs
+113Our fair odds−113
111.9Expected points112.2
+0.46Power rating+0.41
114.5Points / game118.1
109.3Allowed / game111.6
47.8FG%48.0
37.13P%35.2
48.4Rebounds / game46.5
39−23Season record46−18
6−4Last 109−1
Fred VanVleet · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams · Tristen NewtonOutDavid Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Barnes · Harrison Ingram
Mason Plumlee

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · SA chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+11347%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−11353%————
SpreadSA by 0.3
HOUHouston Rockets+0.3our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.2
Over224.2our total————
Under224.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 0.3 expected
Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%
← HOU wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more41%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more28%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.2 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·SA
Mar 6 vs POR
last game
Mar 6 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 8, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Barnes · left ankle; impingementOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAMason Plumlee · return to competition reconditioningOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
HOU·SA
+0.46
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
114.5
points / game
118.1
109.3
points allowed / game
111.6
39−23
season record
46−18
21−8
home record
23−6
18−15
away record
23−12
W1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
9−1
47.8
FG%
48.0
37.1
3P%
35.2
48.4
rebounds / game
46.5
24.7
assists / game
27.1
15.7
turnovers / game
13.7
52.0
points in paint / game
50.8

Rating Trend

HOU · SA · 124 days
Houston RocketsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 3−7
Jan 28at HOUSA 111 − 99
Jan 20at HOUHOU 111 − 106
Nov 7, 2025at SASA 121 − 110
Feb 26, 2025at HOUHOU 118 − 106
Nov 6, 2024at HOUHOU 127 − 100
Oct 28, 2024at SAHOU 106 − 101
Oct 26, 2024at SASA 109 − 106
Mar 12, 2024at SAHOU 103 − 101
Mar 5, 2024at HOUHOU 114 − 101
Dec 11, 2023at HOUHOU 93 − 82

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 6vs POR106 − 99W
Mar 5vs GS113 − 115L
Mar 2at WSH123 − 118W
Feb 28at MIA105 − 115L
Feb 26at ORL113 − 108W
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W
Feb 11vs LAC102 − 105L

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W
Feb 23at DET114 − 103W
Feb 21vs SAC139 − 122W
Feb 19vs PHX121 − 94W
Feb 11at GS126 − 113W