bayesRatings

Spurs at 76ers

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final SA 131 – PHI 91
← NBA / Mar 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA32463518131
PHI2528112791
Team box
SA·PHI
49-89
field goals
33-95
18-45
3-pointers
10-42
15-18
free throws
15-19
56
rebounds
40
36
assists
20
17
turnovers
14
60
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin VassellSA232251
Dylan HarperSA222222
Tyrese MaxeyPHI252182
Jabari WalkerPHI192070
Stephon CastleSA2115410
Keldon JohnsonSA221290

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +49
SA +49
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 0 · SA 49lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 59%, PHI 41% · Updated Mar 3

Expected margin
SA by 3.4
Expected score
SA 117.5 – 114.0 PHI
Expected total
231.5
SpursThe matchup76ers
−143Our fair odds+143
117.5Expected points114.0
+0.41Power rating−0.12
117.9Points / game116.4
112.0Allowed / game115.9
47.8FG%46.0
35.13P%35.4
46.3Rebounds / game43.3
43−18Season record33−27
9−1Last 104−6
David Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Ingram · Mason PlumleeOutJoel Embiid · Johni Broome
Kelly Oubre Jr. · MarJon Beauchamp
Paul George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · PHI chance
Our model fair58.9%41.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−14359%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+14341%————
SpreadSA by 3.4
SASan Antonio Spurs−3.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.5
Over231.5our total————
Under231.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 3.4 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%
← SA wins byPHI wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more49%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more34%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.5 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GQuentin Grimesstarted
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·PHI
Mar 1 at NY
last game
Mar 1 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 3, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAMason Plumlee · return to competition reconditioningOut
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right oblique; strainOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · n/a; illnessOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
SA·PHI
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
117.9
points / game
116.4
112.0
points allowed / game
115.9
43−18
season record
33−27
21−6
home record
16−15
22−12
away record
17−12
L1
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
4−6
47.8
FG%
46.0
35.1
3P%
35.4
46.3
rebounds / game
43.3
27.0
assists / game
24.6
13.8
turnovers / game
13.7
50.7
points in paint / game
48.4

Rating Trend

SA · PHI · 119 days
San Antonio SpursPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHI 6−2
Mar 21, 2025at SASA 128 − 120
Dec 23, 2024at PHIPHI 111 − 106
Apr 7, 2024at SAPHI 133 − 126
Jan 22, 2024at PHIPHI 133 − 123
Feb 3, 2023at SAPHI 137 − 125
Oct 22, 2022at PHISA 114 − 105
Jan 23, 2022at SAPHI 115 − 109
Jan 7, 2022at PHIPHI 119 − 100

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W
Feb 23at DET114 − 103W
Feb 21vs SAC139 − 122W
Feb 19vs PHX121 − 94W
Feb 11at GS126 − 113W
Feb 10at LAL136 − 108W
Feb 7vs DAL138 − 125W
Feb 5at DAL135 − 123W

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 1at BOS98 − 114L
Feb 26vs MIA124 − 117W
Feb 24at IND135 − 114W
Feb 22at MIN135 − 108W
Feb 21at NO111 − 126L
Feb 19vs ATL107 − 117L
Feb 11vs NY89 − 138L
Feb 9at POR118 − 135L
Feb 7at PHX109 − 103W
Feb 5at LAL115 − 119L