bayesRatings

76ers at Celtics

NBA · Sunday, Mar 1 · 7:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final PHI 98 – BOS 114
← NBA / Mar 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI2822331598
BOS26362725114
Team box
PHI·BOS
35-88
field goals
40-91
12-31
3-pointers
16-49
16-22
free throws
18-21
37
rebounds
59
21
assists
27
6
turnovers
15
36
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI433336
Neemias QuetaBOS2727172
Jaylen BrownBOS382788
VJ EdgecombePHI402353
Derrick WhiteBOS392168
Dominick BarlowPHI281481

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +16
PHI +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 16 · PHI 10lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 25%, BOS 75% · Updated Mar 1

Expected margin
BOS by 10.8
Expected score
BOS 116.1 – 105.2 PHI
Expected total
221.3
76ersThe matchupCeltics
+308Our fair odds−308
105.2Expected points116.1
−0.16Power rating+0.80
116.7Points / game115.0
115.9Allowed / game107.5
46.1FG%46.9
35.33P%36.6
43.4Rebounds / game45.8
33−26Season record39−20
5−5Last 108−2
Dalen Terry · Joel Embiid
Johni Broome · MarJon Beauchamp
Paul GeorgeOutJayson Tatum

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BOS chance
Our model fair24.5%75.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+30825%————
BOSBoston Celtics−30875%————
SpreadBOS by 10.8
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+10.8our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−10.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.3
Over221.3our total————
Under221.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 10.8 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 52 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 51 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%
← PHI wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more68%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more53%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.3 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BOS
Feb 26 vs MIA
last game
Feb 27 vs BKN
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 1, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIDalen Terry · g league - two-wayOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right oblique; strainOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; meniscus tearOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHITyrese Martin · g league - two-wayOut
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSAmari Williams · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
BOSBaylor Scheierman · left thumb; fractureQuestionable
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
PHI·BOS
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.80
116.7
points / game
115.0
115.9
points allowed / game
107.5
33−26
season record
39−20
16−15
home record
19−9
17−11
away record
20−11
W3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
8−2
46.1
FG%
46.9
35.3
3P%
36.6
43.4
rebounds / game
45.8
24.7
assists / game
24.4
13.8
turnovers / game
12.1
48.6
points in paint / game
44.4

Rating Trend

PHI · BOS · 117 days
Philadelphia 76ersBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 7−3
Nov 11, 2025at PHIPHI 102 − 100
Oct 31, 2025at PHIBOS 109 − 108
Oct 22, 2025at BOSPHI 117 − 116
Mar 6, 2025at BOSBOS 123 − 105
Feb 20, 2025at PHIBOS 124 − 104
Feb 2, 2025at PHIBOS 118 − 110
Dec 25, 2024at BOSPHI 118 − 114
Feb 27, 2024at BOSBOS 117 − 99
Dec 1, 2023at BOSBOS 125 − 119
Nov 15, 2023at PHIBOS 117 − 107

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Feb 26vs MIA124 − 117W
Feb 24at IND135 − 114W
Feb 22at MIN135 − 108W
Feb 21at NO111 − 126L
Feb 19vs ATL107 − 117L
Feb 11vs NY89 − 138L
Feb 9at POR118 − 135L
Feb 7at PHX109 − 103W
Feb 5at LAL115 − 119L
Feb 3at GS113 − 94W

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Feb 27vs BKN148 − 111W
Feb 25at DEN84 − 103L
Feb 24at PHX97 − 81W
Feb 22at LAL111 − 89W
Feb 19at GS121 − 110W
Feb 11vs CHI124 − 105W
Feb 8vs NY89 − 111L
Feb 6vs MIA98 − 96W
Feb 4at HOU114 − 93W
Feb 3at DAL110 − 100W