bayesRatings

Trail Blazers at Rockets

NBA · Friday, Mar 6 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final POR 99 – HOU 106
← NBA / Mar 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR3422261799
HOU27302029106
Team box
POR·HOU
33-83
field goals
41-76
12-39
3-pointers
5-19
21-37
free throws
19-26
43
rebounds
44
20
assists
23
16
turnovers
22
42
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU262862
Amen ThompsonHOU392677
Jerami GrantPOR382122
Jrue HolidayPOR3720410
Kevin DurantHOU392085
Donovan ClinganPOR2518130

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +13
POR +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 11 · POR 13lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 30%, HOU 70% · Updated Mar 6

Expected margin
HOU by 8.7
Expected score
HOU 116.2 – 107.6 POR
Expected total
223.8
Trail BlazersThe matchupRockets
+228Our fair odds−228
107.6Expected points116.2
−0.20Power rating+0.46
115.3Points / game114.7
118.3Allowed / game109.5
45.2FG%47.7
33.73P%37.3
45.7Rebounds / game48.4
30−33Season record38−23
5−5Last 106−4
Caleb Love · Damian Lillard
Hansen Yang · Jayson Kent
Shaedon SharpeOutFred VanVleet · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · HOU chance
Our model fair30.5%69.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+22830%————
HOUHouston Rockets−22870%————
SpreadHOU by 8.7
PORPortland Trail Blazers+8.7our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−8.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.8
Over223.8our total————
Under223.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 8.7 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 51 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 50 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 49 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%
← POR wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more63%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more48%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.8 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GScoot Hendersonstarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·HOU
Mar 4 at MEM
last game
Mar 5 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 6, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORCaleb Love · g league - two-wayOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORHansen Yang · reaction g league - on assignmentOut
PORJayson Kent · g league - two-wayOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left n/a; fibula stressOut
PORDeni Avdija · lower back; injury managementDoubtful
PORKris Murray · illness; illnessQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUAmen Thompson · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
HOUJabari Smith Jr. · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
POR·HOU
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
115.3
points / game
114.7
118.3
points allowed / game
109.5
30−33
season record
38−23
16−15
home record
20−8
14−18
away record
18−15
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
45.2
FG%
47.7
33.7
3P%
37.3
45.7
rebounds / game
48.4
24.7
assists / game
24.8
17.3
turnovers / game
15.6
48.3
points in paint / game
51.8

Rating Trend

POR · HOU · 122 days
Portland Trail BlazersHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Jan 9at PORPOR 111 − 105
Jan 7at PORPOR 103 − 102
Nov 14, 2025at HOUHOU 140 − 116
Jan 18, 2025at PORHOU 125 − 103
Nov 23, 2024at HOUPOR 104 − 98
Nov 22, 2024at HOUHOU 116 − 88
Apr 12, 2024at PORHOU 116 − 107
Mar 25, 2024at HOUHOU 110 − 92
Mar 8, 2024at PORHOU 123 − 107
Jan 24, 2024at HOUPOR 137 − 131

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 4at MEM122 − 114W
Mar 1at ATL101 − 135L
Feb 28at CHA93 − 109L
Feb 26at CHI121 − 112W
Feb 24vs MIN121 − 124L
Feb 22at PHX92 − 77W
Feb 20vs DEN103 − 157L
Feb 12at UTAH135 − 119W
Feb 11at MIN109 − 133L
Feb 9vs PHI135 − 118W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 5vs GS113 − 115L
Mar 2at WSH123 − 118W
Feb 28at MIA105 − 115L
Feb 26at ORL113 − 108W
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W
Feb 11vs LAC102 − 105L
Feb 10vs LAC102 − 95W