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Trail Blazers at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 4 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final POR 122 – MEM 114
← NBA / Mar 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR32273429122
MEM28313025114
Team box
POR·MEM
48-95
field goals
39-87
15-43
3-pointers
14-32
11-18
free throws
22-33
53
rebounds
38
29
assists
25
17
turnovers
17
62
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jrue HolidayPOR3235511
Jerami GrantPOR363094
Jaylen WellsMEM312432
Robert Williams IIIPOR2320110
GG JacksonMEM342041
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM331791

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +11
POR +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 8 · POR 11lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 45%, MEM 55% · Updated Mar 4

Expected margin
MEM by 3.0
Expected score
MEM 119.0 – 116.0 POR
Expected total
235.0
Trail BlazersThe matchupGrizzlies
+122Our fair odds−122
116.0Expected points119.0
−0.20Power rating−0.17
115.2Points / game115.6
118.4Allowed / game117.7
45.1FG%46.2
33.73P%35.3
45.6Rebounds / game44.2
29−33Season record23−37
5−5Last 103−7
Caleb Love · Damian Lillard
Hansen Yang · Jayson Kent
Shaedon SharpeOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Santi Aldama
Taj Gibson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · MEM chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+12245%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−12255%————
SpreadMEM by 3.0
PORPortland Trail Blazers+3our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−3our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.0
Over235.0our total————
Under235.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 3.0 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%
← POR wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more48%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more34%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.0 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.567%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.529%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GScoot Hendersonstarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GJavon Smallstarted
GRayan Rupertstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·MEM
Mar 1 at ATL
last game
Mar 3 at MIN
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 4, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORCaleb Love · injury management g league - two-wayOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon;Out
PORHansen Yang · g league - two-wayOut
PORJayson Kent · g league - two-wayOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
PORDeni Avdija · low back; injury managementQuestionable
PORKris Murray · illness; .Questionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMTaj Gibson · return to competition reconditioningOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMCedric Coward · right knee; injury managementDoubtful
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; injury managementDoubtful
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; injury managementDoubtful
MEMTaylor Hendricks · illness; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
POR·MEM
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
115.2
points / game
115.6
118.4
points allowed / game
117.7
29−33
season record
23−37
16−15
home record
12−17
13−18
away record
11−20
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
45.1
FG%
46.2
33.7
3P%
35.3
45.6
rebounds / game
44.2
24.7
assists / game
28.9
17.3
turnovers / game
15.2
48.1
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

POR · MEM · 120 days
Portland Trail BlazersMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 4−6
Feb 7at PORPOR 122 − 115
Feb 6at PORPOR 135 − 115
Dec 7, 2025at MEMMEM 119 − 96
Mar 19, 2025at PORPOR 115 − 99
Nov 25, 2024at MEMMEM 123 − 98
Nov 10, 2024at PORMEM 134 − 89
Mar 2, 2024at MEMPOR 107 − 100
Mar 1, 2024at MEMPOR 122 − 92
Nov 5, 2023at PORMEM 112 − 100
Nov 3, 2023at PORPOR 115 − 113

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Mar 1at ATL101 − 135L
Feb 28at CHA93 − 109L
Feb 26at CHI121 − 112W
Feb 24vs MIN121 − 124L
Feb 22at PHX92 − 77W
Feb 20vs DEN103 − 157L
Feb 12at UTAH135 − 119W
Feb 11at MIN109 − 133L
Feb 9vs PHI135 − 118W
Feb 7vs MEM122 − 115W

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Mar 3at MIN110 − 117L
Mar 1at IND125 − 106W
Feb 27at DAL124 − 105W
Feb 25vs GS112 − 133L
Feb 23vs SAC114 − 123L
Feb 21at MIA120 − 136L
Feb 20vs UTAH123 − 114W
Feb 11at DEN116 − 122L
Feb 9at GS113 − 114L
Feb 7at POR115 − 122L