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Grizzlies at Pacers

NBA · Sunday, Mar 1 · 4:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final MEM 125 – IND 106
← NBA / Mar 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM34312634125
IND34262323106
Team box
MEM·IND
48-94
field goals
39-80
15-35
3-pointers
15-39
14-14
free throws
13-19
40
rebounds
31
34
assists
29
13
turnovers
19
60
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jarace WalkerIND252132
Taylor HendricksMEM241950
Micah PotterIND251890
Jaylen WellsMEM211831
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM211723
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM201635

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +21
MEM +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 5 · MEM 21lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 48%, IND 52% · Updated Mar 1

Expected margin
MEM by 0.5
Expected score
MEM 118.5 – 118.0 IND
Expected total
236.5
GrizzliesThe matchupPacers
+108Our fair odds−108
118.5Expected points118.0
−0.20Power rating−0.29
115.6Points / game111.5
117.9Allowed / game119.5
46.2FG%45.0
35.13P%35.0
44.5Rebounds / game42.5
22−36Season record15−45
3−7Last 102−8
Brandon Clarke · Cedric Coward
Ja Morant · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Santi AldamaOut (5 each)Aaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Ethan Thompson · Ivica Zubac
Jalen Slawson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · IND chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+10848%————
INDIndiana Pacers−10852%————
SpreadMEM by 0.5
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−0.5our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.5
Over236.5our total————
Under236.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 0.5 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%
← MEM wins byIND wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more41%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more28%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.5 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GScotty Pippen Jr.started
GWalter Clayton Jr.started
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Indiana Pacers
GBen Sheppardstarted
GKam Jonesstarted
FObi Toppinstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·IND
Feb 27 at DAL
last game
Feb 26 vs CHA
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 1, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCedric Coward · right knee; posterior capsule sprainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMTaj Gibson · return to competitionOut
MEMTy Jerome · reconditioning left thigh; contusionOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; sprainOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · low back and neck; sorenessOut
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayOut
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · left wrist; sprainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
MEM·IND
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
115.6
points / game
111.5
117.9
points allowed / game
119.5
22−36
season record
15−45
12−17
home record
10−21
10−19
away record
5−24
W1
streak
L5
3−7
last 10
2−8
46.2
FG%
45.0
35.1
3P%
35.0
44.5
rebounds / game
42.5
28.8
assists / game
26.3
15.2
turnovers / game
14.5
49.8
points in paint / game
45.6

Rating Trend

MEM · IND · 117 days
Memphis GrizzliesIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 2−7
Oct 25, 2025at MEMMEM 128 − 103
Feb 20, 2025at INDIND 127 − 113
Dec 1, 2024at MEMMEM 136 − 121
Jan 28, 2024at INDIND 116 − 110
Dec 21, 2023at MEMMEM 116 − 103
Jan 29, 2023at MEMMEM 112 − 100
Jan 14, 2023at INDMEM 130 − 112
Mar 24, 2022at MEMMEM 133 − 103
Mar 15, 2022at INDMEM 135 − 102

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Feb 27at DAL124 − 105W
Feb 25vs GS112 − 133L
Feb 23vs SAC114 − 123L
Feb 21at MIA120 − 136L
Feb 20vs UTAH123 − 114W
Feb 11at DEN116 − 122L
Feb 9at GS113 − 114L
Feb 7at POR115 − 122L
Feb 6at POR115 − 135L
Feb 4at SAC129 − 125W

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Feb 26vs CHA109 − 133L
Feb 24vs PHI114 − 135L
Feb 22vs DAL130 − 134L
Feb 20at WSH118 − 131L
Feb 19at WSH105 − 112L
Feb 11at BKN115 − 110W
Feb 10at NY137 − 134W
Feb 8at TOR104 − 122L
Feb 6at MIL99 − 105L
Feb 3vs UTAH122 − 131L