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Hornets at Pacers

NBA · Thursday, Feb 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final CHA 133 – IND 109
← NBA / Feb 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA31364026133
IND34123627109
Team box
CHA·IND
48-86
field goals
41-87
22-46
3-pointers
11-35
15-19
free throws
16-20
46
rebounds
37
35
assists
28
17
turnovers
12
50
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA263374
Kon KnueppelCHA312842
LaMelo BallCHA222048
Andrew NembhardIND292037
Micah PotterIND261941
Jarace WalkerIND311661

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +31
CHA +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 7 · CHA 31lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 47%, IND 53% · Updated Feb 26

Expected margin
IND by 0.2
Expected score
IND 113.9 – 113.8 CHA
Expected total
227.7
HornetsThe matchupPacers
+112Our fair odds−112
113.8Expected points113.9
−0.23Power rating−0.29
115.9Points / game111.5
113.4Allowed / game119.2
46.0FG%45.0
37.63P%35.1
46.1Rebounds / game42.6
28−31Season record15−44
7−3Last 102−8
Antonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan EvbuomwanOutAaron Nesmith · Ivica Zubac
Johnny Furphy · Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · IND chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+11247%————
INDIndiana Pacers−11253%————
SpreadIND by 0.2
CHACharlotte Hornets+0.2our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.7
Over227.7our total————
Under227.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 0.2 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%
← CHA wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more41%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more27%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.7 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
FObi Toppinstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·IND
Feb 24 at CHI
last game
Feb 24 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 26, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · left ankle; sprainOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; sprainOut
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · left wrist; sprainDoubtful
INDAndrew Nembhard · lower back; injury managementQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureQuestionable
INDQuenton Jackson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
CHA·IND
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
115.9
points / game
111.5
113.4
points allowed / game
119.2
28−31
season record
15−44
12−16
home record
10−20
16−15
away record
5−24
W2
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
2−8
46.0
FG%
45.0
37.6
3P%
35.1
46.1
rebounds / game
42.6
26.5
assists / game
26.3
15.8
turnovers / game
14.6
46.2
points in paint / game
45.4

Rating Trend

CHA · IND · 114 days
Charlotte HornetsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 5−5
Jan 8at CHAIND 114 − 112
Nov 19, 2025at INDIND 127 − 118
Apr 2, 2025at INDIND 119 − 105
Dec 8, 2024at INDCHA 113 − 109
Nov 8, 2024at CHACHA 103 − 83
Feb 12, 2024at CHACHA 111 − 102
Feb 4, 2024at CHAIND 115 − 99
Dec 20, 2023at INDIND 144 − 113
Nov 4, 2023at INDCHA 125 − 124
Mar 20, 2023at CHACHA 115 − 109

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Feb 24at CHI131 − 99W
Feb 22at WSH129 − 112W
Feb 20vs CLE113 − 118L
Feb 19vs HOU101 − 105L
Feb 11vs ATL110 − 107W
Feb 9vs DET104 − 110L
Feb 7at ATL126 − 119W
Feb 5at HOU109 − 99W
Feb 2vs NO102 − 95W
Jan 31vs SA111 − 106W

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Feb 24vs PHI114 − 135L
Feb 22vs DAL130 − 134L
Feb 20at WSH118 − 131L
Feb 19at WSH105 − 112L
Feb 11at BKN115 − 110W
Feb 10at NY137 − 134W
Feb 8at TOR104 − 122L
Feb 6at MIL99 − 105L
Feb 3vs UTAH122 − 131L
Feb 2vs HOU114 − 118L