bayesRatings

Trail Blazers at Hornets

NBA · Saturday, Feb 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final POR 93 – CHA 109
← NBA / Feb 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR1726242693
CHA29222335109
Team box
POR·CHA
35-86
field goals
38-91
11-47
3-pointers
16-42
12-19
free throws
17-25
39
rebounds
55
22
assists
24
17
turnovers
16
46
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA332682
Jrue HolidayPOR332554
Jerami GrantPOR322112
Coby WhiteCHA212031
LaMelo BallCHA301548
Miles BridgesCHA321485

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +17
POR +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 17 · POR 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 47%, CHA 53% · Updated Feb 28

Expected margin
CHA by 2.8
Expected score
CHA 114.5 – 111.7 POR
Expected total
226.2
Trail BlazersThe matchupHornets
+111Our fair odds−111
111.7Expected points114.5
−0.16Power rating−0.23
115.8Points / game116.2
118.2Allowed / game113.4
45.2FG%46.2
33.83P%37.8
45.8Rebounds / game46.1
29−31Season record29−31
6−4Last 107−3
Caleb Love · Damian Lillard
Deni Avdija · Shaedon SharpeOutAntonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · CHA chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+11147%————
CHACharlotte Hornets−11153%————
SpreadCHA by 2.8
PORPortland Trail Blazers+2.8our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets−2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.2
Over226.2our total————
Under226.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 2.8 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%
← POR wins byCHA wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more48%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more33%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.2 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.529%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FKris Murraystarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·CHA
Feb 26 at CHI
last game
Feb 26 at IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 28, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORCaleb Love · g league - two-wayOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORDeni Avdija · low back; injury managementOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
POR·CHA
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
115.8
points / game
116.2
118.2
points allowed / game
113.4
29−31
season record
29−31
16−15
home record
12−16
13−16
away record
17−15
W1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
45.2
FG%
46.2
33.8
3P%
37.8
45.8
rebounds / game
46.1
24.8
assists / game
26.6
17.3
turnovers / game
15.8
48.3
points in paint / game
46.3

Rating Trend

POR · CHA · 116 days
Portland Trail BlazersCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHA 2−6
Feb 22, 2025at PORPOR 141 − 88
Jan 24, 2025at CHAPOR 102 − 97
Apr 3, 2024at CHAPOR 89 − 86
Feb 25, 2024at PORCHA 93 − 80
Dec 26, 2022at PORPOR 124 − 113
Nov 9, 2022at CHAPOR 105 − 95
Dec 17, 2021at PORPOR 125 − 116
Oct 31, 2021at CHACHA 125 − 113

POR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 26at CHI121 − 112W
Feb 24vs MIN121 − 124L
Feb 22at PHX92 − 77W
Feb 20vs DEN103 − 157L
Feb 12at UTAH135 − 119W
Feb 11at MIN109 − 133L
Feb 9vs PHI135 − 118W
Feb 7vs MEM122 − 115W
Feb 6vs MEM135 − 115W
Feb 3vs PHX125 − 130L

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Feb 26at IND133 − 109W
Feb 24at CHI131 − 99W
Feb 22at WSH129 − 112W
Feb 20vs CLE113 − 118L
Feb 19vs HOU101 − 105L
Feb 11vs ATL110 − 107W
Feb 9vs DET104 − 110L
Feb 7at ATL126 − 119W
Feb 5at HOU109 − 99W
Feb 2vs NO102 − 95W