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Grizzlies at Timberwolves

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final MEM 110 – MIN 117
← NBA / Mar 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM32302028110
MIN23343228117
Team box
MEM·MIN
36-79
field goals
40-84
15-38
3-pointers
10-34
23-29
free throws
27-34
33
rebounds
52
27
assists
19
17
turnovers
18
36
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN374162
Julius RandleMIN3623114
Jaylen WellsMEM281910
Jaden McDanielsMIN321671
Cedric CowardMEM211521
Ayo DosunmuMIN291434

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +17
MEM +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 17 · MEM 11lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 31%, MIN 69% · Updated Mar 3

Expected margin
MIN by 6.5
Expected score
MIN 120.3 – 113.8 MEM
Expected total
234.2
GrizzliesThe matchupTimberwolves
+227Our fair odds−227
113.8Expected points120.3
−0.17Power rating+0.48
115.7Points / game119.1
117.7Allowed / game114.6
46.3FG%48.5
35.23P%37.6
44.4Rebounds / game44.7
23−36Season record38−23
3−7Last 107−3
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Taj Gibson
Zach EdeyOutEnrique Freeman · Rocco Zikarsky
Zyon Pullin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · MIN chance
Our model fair30.6%69.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+22731%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−22769%————
SpreadMIN by 6.5
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+6.5our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.2
Over234.2our total————
Under234.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 6.5 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%
← MEM wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more58%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more42%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.2 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.548%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
GScotty Pippen Jr.started
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·MIN
Mar 1 at IND
last game
Mar 1 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 3, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTaj Gibson · reaction return to competition reconditioningOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stressOut
MEMCedric Coward · right knee; posterior capsule sprainQuestionable
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
MEMTy Jerome · left thigh; contusionQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
MEM·MIN
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
115.7
points / game
119.1
117.7
points allowed / game
114.6
23−36
season record
38−23
12−17
home record
20−11
11−19
away record
18−12
W2
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
7−3
46.3
FG%
48.5
35.2
3P%
37.6
44.4
rebounds / game
44.7
28.9
assists / game
26.5
15.1
turnovers / game
14.6
50.0
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

MEM · MIN · 119 days
Memphis GrizzliesMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Feb 2at MEMMEM 137 − 128
Jan 31at MEMMIN 131 − 114
Dec 17, 2025at MINMEM 116 − 110
Apr 10, 2025at MEMMIN 141 − 125
Jan 20, 2025at MEMMEM 108 − 106
Jan 11, 2025at MINMEM 127 − 125
Feb 28, 2024at MINMIN 110 − 101
Jan 18, 2024at MINMIN 118 − 103
Dec 8, 2023at MEMMIN 127 − 103
Nov 26, 2023at MEMMIN 119 − 97

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Mar 1at IND125 − 106W
Feb 27at DAL124 − 105W
Feb 25vs GS112 − 133L
Feb 23vs SAC114 − 123L
Feb 21at MIA120 − 136L
Feb 20vs UTAH123 − 114W
Feb 11at DEN116 − 122L
Feb 9at GS113 − 114L
Feb 7at POR115 − 122L
Feb 6at POR115 − 135L

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 1at DEN117 − 108W
Feb 26at LAC94 − 88W
Feb 24at POR124 − 121W
Feb 22vs PHI108 − 135L
Feb 20vs DAL122 − 111W
Feb 11vs POR133 − 109W
Feb 9vs ATL138 − 116W
Feb 8vs LAC96 − 115L
Feb 6vs NO115 − 119L
Feb 4at TOR128 − 126W