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Trail Blazers at Hawks

NBA · Sunday, Mar 1 · 5:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final POR 101 – ATL 135
← NBA / Mar 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR25332716101
ATL44312832135
Team box
POR·ATL
35-87
field goals
51-92
13-37
3-pointers
15-40
18-26
free throws
18-23
38
rebounds
54
23
assists
36
17
turnovers
15
42
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Onyeka OkongwuATL2725106
Jrue HolidayPOR282364
Jonathan KumingaATL252073
CJ McCollumATL261925
Donovan ClinganPOR3115155
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL281534

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +34
POR +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 34 · POR 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Mar 1

Expected margin
ATL by 2.4
Expected score
ATL 119.5 – 117.1 POR
Expected total
236.7
Trail BlazersThe matchupHawks
+125Our fair odds−125
117.1Expected points119.5
−0.16Power rating−0.11
115.5Points / game117.1
118.1Allowed / game117.6
45.1FG%46.9
33.63P%36.5
45.7Rebounds / game43.1
29−32Season record30−31
6−4Last 106−4
Caleb Love · Damian Lillard
Deni Avdija · Robert Williams III
Shaedon SharpeOutAsa Newell · RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+12544%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−12556%————
SpreadATL by 2.4
PORPortland Trail Blazers+2.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.7
Over236.7our total————
Under236.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 2.4 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%
← POR wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more47%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more32%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.7 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.531%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FKris Murraystarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·ATL
Feb 28 at CHA
last game
Feb 26 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 1, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORCaleb Love · g league - two-wayOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORDeni Avdija · low back; injury managementOut
PORRobert Williams III · left knee; injury managementOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
PORHansen Yang · mid back; sorenessQuestionable
PORSidy Cissoko · illness; .Questionable
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
POR·ATL
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
115.5
points / game
117.1
118.1
points allowed / game
117.6
29−32
season record
30−31
16−15
home record
13−16
13−17
away record
17−15
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
45.1
FG%
46.9
33.6
3P%
36.5
45.7
rebounds / game
43.1
24.7
assists / game
30.3
17.3
turnovers / game
14.3
48.2
points in paint / game
51.5

Rating Trend

POR · ATL · 117 days
Portland Trail BlazersAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 3−6
Jan 15at PORPOR 117 − 101
Apr 1, 2025at ATLPOR 127 − 113
Nov 17, 2024at PORPOR 114 − 110
Mar 27, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 106
Mar 13, 2024at PORPOR 106 − 102
Mar 3, 2023at ATLATL 129 − 111
Jan 30, 2023at PORPOR 129 − 125
Mar 14, 2022at ATLATL 122 − 113
Jan 3, 2022at PORPOR 136 − 131

POR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Feb 28at CHA93 − 109L
Feb 26at CHI121 − 112W
Feb 24vs MIN121 − 124L
Feb 22at PHX92 − 77W
Feb 20vs DEN103 − 157L
Feb 12at UTAH135 − 119W
Feb 11at MIN109 − 133L
Feb 9vs PHI135 − 118W
Feb 7vs MEM122 − 115W
Feb 6vs MEM135 − 115W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Feb 26vs WSH126 − 96W
Feb 24vs WSH119 − 98W
Feb 22vs BKN115 − 104W
Feb 20vs MIA97 − 128L
Feb 19at PHI117 − 107W
Feb 11at CHA107 − 110L
Feb 9at MIN116 − 138L
Feb 7vs CHA119 − 126L
Feb 5vs UTAH121 − 119W
Feb 3at MIA127 − 115W