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Pistons at Spurs

NBA · Thursday, Mar 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final DET 106 – SA 121
← NBA / Mar 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET23323021106
SA38332228121
Team box
DET·SA
35-87
field goals
42-84
12-28
3-pointers
13-37
24-30
free throws
24-30
44
rebounds
46
20
assists
24
10
turnovers
9
36
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3938163
De'Aaron FoxSA322953
Cade CunninghamDET392648
Isaiah StewartDET301852
Julian ChampagnieSA311671
Stephon CastleSA3511112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +22
DET +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 22 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 52%, SA 48% · Updated Mar 5

Expected margin
DET by 1.4
Expected score
DET 114.5 – 113.1 SA
Expected total
227.7
PistonsThe matchupSpurs
−107Our fair odds+107
114.5Expected points113.1
+0.66Power rating+0.41
117.2Points / game118.1
109.5Allowed / game111.6
48.2FG%47.9
34.23P%35.1
46.3Rebounds / game46.5
45−15Season record44−18
8−2Last 109−1
Isaac Jones · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.OutDavid Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Barnes · Harrison Ingram
Mason Plumlee

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · SA chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons−10752%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+10748%————
SpreadDET by 1.4
DETDetroit Pistons−1.4our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.7
Over227.7our total————
Under227.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 1.4 expected
Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%
← DET wins bySA wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more44%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more30%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.7 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·SA
Mar 3 at CLE
last game
Mar 3 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 5, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Barnes · left ankle; sorenessOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAMason Plumlee · return to competition reconditioningOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
DET·SA
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
117.2
points / game
118.1
109.5
points allowed / game
111.6
45−15
season record
44−18
24−7
home record
21−6
21−8
away record
23−12
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
9−1
48.2
FG%
47.9
34.2
3P%
35.1
46.3
rebounds / game
46.5
26.8
assists / game
27.2
15.2
turnovers / game
13.8
57.6
points in paint / game
50.9

Rating Trend

DET · SA · 121 days
Detroit PistonsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SA 5−4
Feb 23at DETSA 114 − 103
Mar 25, 2025at DETDET 122 − 96
Feb 21, 2025at SADET 125 − 110
Apr 14, 2024at SASA 123 − 95
Jan 10, 2024at DETSA 130 − 108
Feb 10, 2023at DETDET 138 − 131
Jan 6, 2023at SASA 121 − 109
Jan 1, 2022at DETDET 117 − 116
Dec 26, 2021at SASA 144 − 109

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Mar 3at CLE109 − 113L
Mar 1at ORL106 − 92W
Feb 27vs CLE122 − 119W
Feb 25vs OKC124 − 116W
Feb 23vs SA103 − 114L
Feb 21at CHI126 − 110W
Feb 19at NY126 − 111W
Feb 11at TOR113 − 95W
Feb 9at CHA110 − 104W
Feb 6vs NY118 − 80W

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W
Feb 23at DET114 − 103W
Feb 21vs SAC139 − 122W
Feb 19vs PHX121 − 94W
Feb 11at GS126 − 113W
Feb 10at LAL136 − 108W
Feb 7vs DAL138 − 125W