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Pistons at Cavaliers

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final DET 109 – CLE 113
← NBA / Mar 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET27213229109
CLE25293524113
Team box
DET·CLE
39-77
field goals
38-86
9-24
3-pointers
17-46
22-29
free throws
20-26
44
rebounds
38
29
assists
27
14
turnovers
10
48
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen DurenDET2724141
Jaylon TysonCLE322234
Tobias HarrisDET311950
James HardenCLE351857
Evan MobleyCLE321854
Ausar ThompsonDET311666

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +11
DET +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 11 · DET 4lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Mar 3

Expected margin
CLE by 0.4
Expected score
CLE 115.2 – 114.8 DET
Expected total
230.1
PistonsThe matchupCavaliers
+110Our fair odds−110
114.8Expected points115.2
+0.66Power rating+0.59
117.3Points / game119.2
109.4Allowed / game115.0
48.1FG%47.8
34.23P%36.3
46.3Rebounds / game44.5
45−14Season record38−24
8−2Last 107−3
Isaac Jones · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.Out (3 each)Darius Brown · Donovan Mitchell
Max Strus

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CLE chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+11048%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−11052%————
SpreadCLE by 0.4
DETDetroit Pistons+0.4our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.1
Over230.1our total————
Under230.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 0.4 expected
Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%
← DET wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more42%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more28%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.1 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.548%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CLE
Mar 1 at ORL
last game
Mar 1 at BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 3, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDarius Brown · g league - two-wayOut
CLEDonovan Mitchell · right groin; strainOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLEDean Wade · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
DET·CLE
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
117.3
points / game
119.2
109.4
points allowed / game
115.0
45−14
season record
38−24
24−7
home record
20−11
21−7
away record
18−13
W3
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
7−3
48.1
FG%
47.8
34.2
3P%
36.3
46.3
rebounds / game
44.5
26.7
assists / game
28.4
15.3
turnovers / game
14.4
57.7
points in paint / game
51.1

Rating Trend

DET · CLE · 119 days
Detroit PistonsCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
Feb 27at DETDET 122 − 119
Jan 4at CLEDET 114 − 110
Oct 27, 2025at DETCLE 116 − 95
Mar 28, 2025at DETDET 133 − 122
Feb 5, 2025at DETCLE 118 − 115
Jan 27, 2025at CLECLE 110 − 91
Oct 25, 2024at CLECLE 113 − 101
Mar 1, 2024at DETCLE 110 − 100
Jan 31, 2024at CLECLE 128 − 121
Dec 2, 2023at DETCLE 110 − 101

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Mar 1at ORL106 − 92W
Feb 27vs CLE122 − 119W
Feb 25vs OKC124 − 116W
Feb 23vs SA103 − 114L
Feb 21at CHI126 − 110W
Feb 19at NY126 − 111W
Feb 11at TOR113 − 95W
Feb 9at CHA110 − 104W
Feb 6vs NY118 − 80W
Feb 5vs WSH117 − 126L

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Mar 1at BKN106 − 102W
Feb 27at DET119 − 122L
Feb 25at MIL116 − 118L
Feb 24vs NY109 − 94W
Feb 22at OKC113 − 121L
Feb 20at CHA118 − 113W
Feb 19vs BKN112 − 84W
Feb 11vs WSH138 − 113W
Feb 9at DEN119 − 117W
Feb 7at SAC132 − 126W