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Clippers at Spurs

NBA · Friday, Mar 6 · 8:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final LAC 112 – SA 116
← NBA / Mar 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC32342620112
SA25213535116
Team box
LAC·SA
42-86
field goals
46-95
12-33
3-pointers
17-41
16-20
free throws
7-14
41
rebounds
52
22
assists
29
10
turnovers
13
44
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kawhi LeonardLAC373093
Victor WembanyamaSA2227101
Brook LopezLAC342662
Julian ChampagnieSA292091
De'Aaron FoxSA301929
Derrick Jones Jr.LAC341232

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +25
LAC +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 6 · LAC 25lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 40%, SA 60% · Updated Mar 6

Expected margin
SA by 3.1
Expected score
SA 113.3 – 110.2 LAC
Expected total
223.6
ClippersThe matchupSpurs
+148Our fair odds−148
110.2Expected points113.3
+0.19Power rating+0.41
112.4Points / game118.1
112.0Allowed / game111.6
48.1FG%48.0
36.03P%35.1
41.0Rebounds / game46.4
30−31Season record45−18
6−4Last 109−1
Bradley Beal · Darius Garland
John Collins · Yanic Konan NiederhauserOutDavid Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Barnes · Harrison Ingram
Mason Plumlee

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · SA chance
Our model fair40.3%59.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers+14840%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−14860%————
SpreadSA by 3.1
LACLA Clippers+3.1our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.6
Over223.6our total————
Under223.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 3.1 expected
LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 25 points: <1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 15 points: 1%LA Clippers by 14 points: 1%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 8 points: 2%LA Clippers by 7 points: 2%LA Clippers by 6 points: 2%LA Clippers by 5 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%
← LAC wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more49%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more34%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.6 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GKris Dunnstarted
GKobe Sandersstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·SA
Mar 4 vs IND
last game
Mar 5 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 6, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACDarius Garland · left toe; injury managementOut
LACJohn Collins · neck; strainOut
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser · right lisfranc ligament; tearOut
LACBogdan Bogdanovic · n/a; illnessQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Barnes · left ankle; impingementOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAMason Plumlee · return to competition reconditioningOut
SAJulian Champagnie · right knee; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
LAC·SA
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
112.4
points / game
118.1
112.0
points allowed / game
111.6
30−31
season record
45−18
16−13
home record
22−6
14−18
away record
23−12
W3
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
9−1
48.1
FG%
48.0
36.0
3P%
35.1
41.0
rebounds / game
46.4
23.5
assists / game
27.1
14.7
turnovers / game
13.7
48.3
points in paint / game
50.9

Rating Trend

LAC · SA · 122 days
LA ClippersSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 1−9
Apr 8, 2025at LACLAC 122 − 117
Jan 29, 2025at SALAC 128 − 116
Dec 31, 2024at SASA 122 − 86
Nov 4, 2024at LACLAC 113 − 104
Nov 22, 2023at SALAC 109 − 102
Nov 20, 2023at SALAC 124 − 99
Oct 29, 2023at LACLAC 123 − 83
Jan 26, 2023at LACLAC 138 − 100
Jan 20, 2023at SALAC 131 − 126
Nov 19, 2022at LACLAC 119 − 97

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 4vs IND130 − 107W
Mar 2at GS114 − 101W
Mar 1vs NO137 − 117W
Feb 26vs MIN88 − 94L
Feb 22vs ORL109 − 111L
Feb 20at LAL122 − 125L
Feb 19vs DEN115 − 114W
Feb 11at HOU105 − 102W
Feb 10at HOU95 − 102L
Feb 8at MIN115 − 96W

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W
Feb 23at DET114 − 103W
Feb 21vs SAC139 − 122W
Feb 19vs PHX121 − 94W
Feb 11at GS126 − 113W
Feb 10at LAL136 − 108W