bayesRatings

Pacers at Clippers

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 4 · 9:30 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final IND 107 – LAC 130
← NBA / Mar 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND25262630107
LAC42213928130
Team box
IND·LAC
36-84
field goals
49-89
10-36
3-pointers
12-32
25-31
free throws
20-25
38
rebounds
47
26
assists
28
13
turnovers
11
48
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kawhi LeonardLAC232982
Pascal SiakamIND302951
Bennedict MathurinLAC222384
Jay HuffIND251851
Jarace WalkerIND311755
Brook LopezLAC211732

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +37
IND +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 37 · IND 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 32%, LAC 68% · Updated Mar 4

Expected margin
LAC by 7.3
Expected score
LAC 116.1 – 108.8 IND
Expected total
224.8
PacersThe matchupClippers
+209Our fair odds−209
108.8Expected points116.1
−0.39Power rating+0.19
111.4Points / game112.1
119.6Allowed / game112.1
45.1FG%48.0
35.13P%35.9
42.4Rebounds / game40.9
15−46Season record29−31
2−8Last 106−4
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Tyrese HaliburtonOutBradley Beal · John Collins

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · LAC chance
Our model fair32.4%67.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+20932%————
LACLA Clippers−20968%————
SpreadLAC by 7.3
INDIndiana Pacers+7.3our margin————
LACLA Clippers−7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.8
Over224.8our total————
Under224.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 7.3 expected
Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 3%LA Clippers by 11 points: 3%LA Clippers by 12 points: 3%LA Clippers by 13 points: 3%LA Clippers by 14 points: 3%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 2%LA Clippers by 18 points: 2%LA Clippers by 19 points: 2%LA Clippers by 20 points: 2%LA Clippers by 21 points: 2%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 29 points: 1%LA Clippers by 30 points: 1%LA Clippers by 31 points: 1%LA Clippers by 32 points: 1%LA Clippers by 33 points: 1%LA Clippers by 34 points: 1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 46 points: <1%LA Clippers by 47 points: <1%LA Clippers by 48 points: <1%LA Clippers by 49 points: <1%LA Clippers by 50 points: <1%
← IND wins byLAC wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more60%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more44%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.8 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted
LA Clippers
GKris Dunnstarted
GKobe Sandersstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·LAC
Mar 1 vs MEM
last game
Mar 2 at GS
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 4, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
INDAndrew Nembhard · low back and neck; sorenessQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDPascal Siakam · left wrist; sprainQuestionable
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureProbable
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACJohn Collins · neck; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
IND·LAC
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
111.4
points / game
112.1
119.6
points allowed / game
112.1
15−46
season record
29−31
10−22
home record
15−13
5−24
away record
14−18
L6
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
6−4
45.1
FG%
48.0
35.1
3P%
35.9
42.4
rebounds / game
40.9
26.4
assists / game
23.5
14.6
turnovers / game
14.7
45.5
points in paint / game
48.0

Rating Trend

IND · LAC · 120 days
Indiana PacersLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LAC 3−5
Feb 23, 2025at INDIND 129 − 111
Feb 6, 2025at LACIND 119 − 112
Mar 25, 2024at LACIND 133 − 116
Dec 18, 2023at INDLAC 151 − 127
Dec 31, 2022at INDIND 131 − 130
Nov 27, 2022at LACLAC 114 − 100
Jan 31, 2022at INDIND 122 − 116
Jan 17, 2022at LACLAC 139 − 133

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Mar 1vs MEM106 − 125L
Feb 26vs CHA109 − 133L
Feb 24vs PHI114 − 135L
Feb 22vs DAL130 − 134L
Feb 20at WSH118 − 131L
Feb 19at WSH105 − 112L
Feb 11at BKN115 − 110W
Feb 10at NY137 − 134W
Feb 8at TOR104 − 122L
Feb 6at MIL99 − 105L

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 2at GS114 − 101W
Mar 1vs NO137 − 117W
Feb 26vs MIN88 − 94L
Feb 22vs ORL109 − 111L
Feb 20at LAL122 − 125L
Feb 19vs DEN115 − 114W
Feb 11at HOU105 − 102W
Feb 10at HOU95 − 102L
Feb 8at MIN115 − 96W
Feb 6at SAC114 − 111W