bayesRatings

Raptors at Rockets

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 10 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final TOR 99 – HOU 113
← NBA / Mar 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR2920341699
HOU29292827113
Team box
TOR·HOU
34-78
field goals
41-82
9-36
3-pointers
10-24
22-28
free throws
21-27
30
rebounds
52
21
assists
21
13
turnovers
18
36
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU332982
RJ BarrettTOR322561
Scottie BarnesTOR362452
Amen ThompsonHOU392336
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU352342
Alperen SengunHOU3014124

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +20
TOR +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 20 · TOR 4lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 36%, HOU 64% · Updated Mar 10

Expected margin
HOU by 5.4
Expected score
HOU 112.5 – 107.0 TOR
Expected total
219.5
RaptorsThe matchupRockets
+181Our fair odds−181
107.0Expected points112.5
+0.01Power rating+0.43
113.7Points / game114.6
111.7Allowed / game109.9
47.4FG%47.8
34.63P%37.0
42.6Rebounds / game48.2
36−27Season record39−24
5−5Last 106−4
A.J. Lawson · Chucky Hepburn
Collin Murray-Boyles · Trayce Jackson-DavisOut (4 each)Fred VanVleet · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · HOU chance
Our model fair35.6%64.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+18136%————
HOUHouston Rockets−18164%————
SpreadHOU by 5.4
TORToronto Raptors+5.4our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 219.5
Over219.5our total————
Under219.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 5.4 expected
Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%
← TOR wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more55%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more39%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

219.5 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 209.569%
Total over 219.549%
Total over 229.530%
Total from 210 to 22939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FSandro Mamukelashvilistarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·HOU
Mar 8 vs DAL
last game
Mar 8 at SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 10, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; sprainOut
TORTrayce Jackson-Davis · right hand; middle finger - dislocationOut
TORJakob Poeltl · illness; illnessQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
TOR·HOU
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
113.7
points / game
114.6
111.7
points allowed / game
109.9
36−27
season record
39−24
17−16
home record
21−8
19−11
away record
18−16
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
47.4
FG%
47.8
34.6
3P%
37.0
42.6
rebounds / game
48.2
29.1
assists / game
24.7
13.8
turnovers / game
15.6
51.9
points in paint / game
52.1

Rating Trend

TOR · HOU · 126 days
Toronto RaptorsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 4−5
Oct 29, 2025at TORHOU 139 − 121
Feb 9, 2025at HOUHOU 94 − 87
Dec 22, 2024at TORHOU 114 − 110
Feb 9, 2024at TORTOR 107 − 104
Feb 2, 2024at HOUHOU 135 − 106
Feb 3, 2023at HOUTOR 117 − 111
Nov 9, 2022at TORTOR 116 − 109
Apr 8, 2022at TORTOR 117 − 115
Feb 10, 2022at HOUTOR 139 − 120

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 8vs DAL122 − 92W
Mar 5at MIN107 − 115L
Mar 3vs NY95 − 111L
Feb 28at WSH134 − 125W
Feb 25vs SA107 − 110L
Feb 24vs OKC107 − 116L
Feb 22at MIL122 − 94W
Feb 19at CHI110 − 101W
Feb 11vs DET95 − 113L
Feb 8vs IND122 − 104W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 8at SA120 − 145L
Mar 6vs POR106 − 99W
Mar 5vs GS113 − 115L
Mar 2at WSH123 − 118W
Feb 28at MIA105 − 115L
Feb 26at ORL113 − 108W
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W