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Mavericks at Raptors

NBA · Sunday, Mar 8 · 5:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final DAL 92 – TOR 122
← NBA / Mar 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL2915222692
TOR36213134122
Team box
DAL·TOR
35-88
field goals
48-95
5-30
3-pointers
10-36
17-20
free throws
16-22
47
rebounds
42
22
assists
39
19
turnovers
8
52
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
RJ BarrettTOR343163
Daniel GaffordDAL2321113
Cooper FlaggDAL301786
Scottie BarnesTOR351745
Jakob PoeltlTOR3016104
Brandon WilliamsDAL191601

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +32
DAL +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 32 · DAL 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 37%, TOR 63% · Updated Mar 8

Expected margin
TOR by 4.7
Expected score
TOR 116.0 – 111.3 DAL
Expected total
227.3
MavericksThe matchupRaptors
+169Our fair odds−169
111.3Expected points116.0
−0.35Power rating+0.01
113.3Points / game113.5
117.7Allowed / game112.0
47.0FG%47.3
33.73P%34.7
44.7Rebounds / game42.6
21−42Season record35−27
2−8Last 105−5
Dereck Lively II · John Poulakidas
Kyrie Irving · Moussa Cisse
Tyler SmithOut (5 each)A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Collin Murray-Boyles
Jonathan Mogbo

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair37.2%62.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+16937%————
TORToronto Raptors−16963%————
SpreadTOR by 4.7
DALDallas Mavericks+4.7our margin————
TORToronto Raptors−4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.3
Over227.3our total————
Under227.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 4.7 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%
← DAL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more53%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more38%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

227.3 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·TOR
Mar 6 at BOS
last game
Mar 5 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 8, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayOut
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DALCooper Flagg · left midfoot; injury managementQuestionable
DALDwight Powell · right calf; tightnessProbable
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; sprainOut
TORJonathan Mogbo · g league - on assignmentOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
DAL·TOR
−0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
113.3
points / game
113.5
117.7
points allowed / game
112.0
21−42
season record
35−27
14−19
home record
16−16
7−23
away record
19−11
L6
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
5−5
47.0
FG%
47.3
33.7
3P%
34.7
44.7
rebounds / game
42.6
24.9
assists / game
28.9
14.7
turnovers / game
13.9
53.1
points in paint / game
51.7

Rating Trend

DAL · TOR · 124 days
Dallas MavericksToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TOR 2−7
Oct 26, 2025at DALDAL 139 − 129
Apr 11, 2025at DALDAL 124 − 102
Dec 7, 2024at TORDAL 125 − 118
Feb 28, 2024at TORDAL 136 − 125
Nov 8, 2023at DALTOR 127 − 116
Nov 26, 2022at TORTOR 105 − 100
Nov 4, 2022at DALDAL 111 − 110
Jan 19, 2022at DALDAL 102 − 98
Oct 23, 2021at TORDAL 103 − 95

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Mar 6at BOS100 − 120L
Mar 5at ORL114 − 115L
Mar 3at CHA90 − 117L
Mar 1vs OKC87 − 100L
Feb 27vs MEM105 − 124L
Feb 26vs SAC121 − 130L
Feb 24at BKN123 − 114W
Feb 22at IND134 − 130W
Feb 20at MIN111 − 122L
Feb 12at LAL104 − 124L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Mar 5at MIN107 − 115L
Mar 3vs NY95 − 111L
Feb 28at WSH134 − 125W
Feb 25vs SA107 − 110L
Feb 24vs OKC107 − 116L
Feb 22at MIL122 − 94W
Feb 19at CHI110 − 101W
Feb 11vs DET95 − 113L
Feb 8vs IND122 − 104W
Feb 5vs CHI123 − 107W