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Raptors at Timberwolves

NBA · Thursday, Mar 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final TOR 107 – MIN 115
← NBA / Mar 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR27272231107
MIN31243525115
Team box
TOR·MIN
41-83
field goals
42-81
9-21
3-pointers
13-31
16-24
free throws
18-23
40
rebounds
41
22
assists
24
14
turnovers
13
52
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
RJ BarrettTOR302560
Anthony EdwardsMIN342243
Rudy GobertMIN3518125
Immanuel QuickleyTOR301837
Julius RandleMIN341784
Donte DiVincenzoMIN271652

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +18
TOR +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 18 · TOR 12lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 35%, MIN 65% · Updated Mar 5

Expected margin
MIN by 5.9
Expected score
MIN 115.7 – 109.8 TOR
Expected total
225.4
RaptorsThe matchupTimberwolves
+190Our fair odds−190
109.8Expected points115.7
+0.01Power rating+0.48
113.7Points / game119.1
112.0Allowed / game114.5
47.3FG%48.5
34.63P%37.4
42.6Rebounds / game44.8
35−26Season record39−23
5−5Last 107−3
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Collin Murray-BoylesOut (4 each)Enrique Freeman · Joe Ingles
Rocco Zikarsky · Zyon Pullin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIN chance
Our model fair34.5%65.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+19035%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−19065%————
SpreadMIN by 5.9
TORToronto Raptors+5.9our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.4
Over225.4our total————
Under225.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 5.9 expected
Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%
← TOR wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more56%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more41%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.4 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIN
Mar 3 vs NY
last game
Mar 3 vs MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 5, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; sprainOut
TORBrandon Ingram · left thumb; sprainQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoe Ingles · personal reasonsOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut
MINAnthony Edwards · right foot; injury maintenanceQuestionable
MINJaylen Clark · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
TOR·MIN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
113.7
points / game
119.1
112.0
points allowed / game
114.5
35−26
season record
39−23
16−16
home record
21−11
19−10
away record
18−12
L1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
47.3
FG%
48.5
34.6
3P%
37.4
42.6
rebounds / game
44.8
29.0
assists / game
26.4
13.9
turnovers / game
14.7
51.7
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

TOR · MIN · 121 days
Toronto RaptorsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 4−5
Feb 4at TORMIN 128 − 126
Nov 21, 2024at TORTOR 110 − 105
Oct 26, 2024at MINMIN 112 − 101
Apr 3, 2024at MINMIN 133 − 85
Oct 25, 2023at TORTOR 97 − 94
Mar 18, 2023at TORTOR 122 − 107
Jan 19, 2023at MINMIN 128 − 126
Mar 30, 2022at TORTOR 125 − 102
Feb 16, 2022at MINTOR 103 − 91

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 3vs NY95 − 111L
Feb 28at WSH134 − 125W
Feb 25vs SA107 − 110L
Feb 24vs OKC107 − 116L
Feb 22at MIL122 − 94W
Feb 19at CHI110 − 101W
Feb 11vs DET95 − 113L
Feb 8vs IND122 − 104W
Feb 5vs CHI123 − 107W
Feb 4vs MIN126 − 128L

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Mar 3vs MEM117 − 110W
Mar 1at DEN117 − 108W
Feb 26at LAC94 − 88W
Feb 24at POR124 − 121W
Feb 22vs PHI108 − 135L
Feb 20vs DAL122 − 111W
Feb 11vs POR133 − 109W
Feb 9vs ATL138 − 116W
Feb 8vs LAC96 − 115L
Feb 6vs NO115 − 119L