bayesRatings

Mavericks at Hornets

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final DAL 90 – CHA 117
← NBA / Mar 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL2325241890
CHA31263525117
Team box
DAL·CHA
28-74
field goals
42-88
3-22
3-pointers
20-51
31-42
free throws
13-19
42
rebounds
49
19
assists
32
15
turnovers
15
46
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon WilliamsDAL271841
Brandon MillerCHA211754
LaMelo BallCHA291559
Kon KnueppelCHA321365
Sion JamesCHA241381
P.J. WashingtonDAL281323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +27
DAL +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 27 · DAL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 41%, CHA 59% · Updated Mar 3

Expected margin
CHA by 4.3
Expected score
CHA 115.7 – 111.3 DAL
Expected total
227.0
MavericksThe matchupHornets
+146Our fair odds−146
111.3Expected points115.7
−0.35Power rating−0.14
113.9Points / game116.0
117.7Allowed / game113.0
47.3FG%46.1
33.83P%37.8
44.7Rebounds / game46.3
21−39Season record30−31
2−8Last 107−3
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving
Marvin Bagley III · Naji MarshallOutAntonio Reeves · Coby White
Liam McNeeley · PJ Hall
Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · CHA chance
Our model fair40.6%59.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+14641%————
CHACharlotte Hornets−14659%————
SpreadCHA by 4.3
DALDallas Mavericks+4.3our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.0
Over227.0our total————
Under227.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 4.3 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%
← DAL wins byCHA wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more52%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more37%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.548%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·CHA
Mar 1 vs OKC
last game
Feb 28 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 3, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMarvin Bagley III · neck; sprainOut
DALNaji Marshall · right finger; contusionOut
DALCooper Flagg · left midfront; sprainDoubtful
DALKlay Thompson · right adductor; contusionDoubtful
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALCaleb Martin · low back; sorenessProbable
and 1 more
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHACoby White · left calf; injury managementOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
DAL·CHA
−0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
113.9
points / game
116.0
117.7
points allowed / game
113.0
21−39
season record
30−31
14−19
home record
13−16
7−20
away record
17−15
L3
streak
W4
2−8
last 10
7−3
47.3
FG%
46.1
33.8
3P%
37.8
44.7
rebounds / game
46.3
25.0
assists / game
26.6
14.8
turnovers / game
15.8
53.9
points in paint / game
46.2

Rating Trend

DAL · CHA · 119 days
Dallas MavericksCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHA 5−4
Jan 29at DALCHA 123 − 121
Feb 27, 2025at DALDAL 103 − 96
Jan 20, 2025at CHACHA 110 − 105
Apr 9, 2024at CHADAL 130 − 104
Nov 5, 2023at DALDAL 124 − 118
Mar 26, 2023at CHACHA 110 − 104
Mar 24, 2023at DALCHA 117 − 109
Mar 19, 2022at CHACHA 129 − 108
Dec 13, 2021at DALDAL 120 − 96

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Mar 1vs OKC87 − 100L
Feb 27vs MEM105 − 124L
Feb 26vs SAC121 − 130L
Feb 24at BKN123 − 114W
Feb 22at IND134 − 130W
Feb 20at MIN111 − 122L
Feb 12at LAL104 − 124L
Feb 10at PHX111 − 120L
Feb 7at SA125 − 138L
Feb 5vs SA123 − 135L

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Feb 28vs POR109 − 93W
Feb 26at IND133 − 109W
Feb 24at CHI131 − 99W
Feb 22at WSH129 − 112W
Feb 20vs CLE113 − 118L
Feb 19vs HOU101 − 105L
Feb 11vs ATL110 − 107W
Feb 9vs DET104 − 110L
Feb 7at ATL126 − 119W
Feb 5at HOU109 − 99W